Verified closeDSE · BoT · frozen to the covered session10 Jul 2026 verified close
A daily reading of Tanzania’s markets, capital and policy, with regional and global forces when they materially change the read. Information and education, never advice.
Weekly overview; the week in review, frozen at Saturday’s publication and covering the 10 Jul 2026 verified close (the week’s last verified session). Its figures are frozen to that close; for today’s live moves see Markets.
Weekly market scoreboard
2026-07-10 close · change ON THE WEEK · DSE · BoT · NBS
DSE All-Share
4,082.43
▼ -0.83%
DSEI · 10 Jul close · latest verified
Tanzania Share Index
8,918.27
▼ -0.88%
USD / TZS
2,634
▲ +0.19%
BoT mean · hard-currency lens
Gold · $/oz
$4,111
▼ -1.26%
world spot · reserve/hedge lens
BoT rate
6.25%
policy
CBR · policy anchor
91-day T-bill
3.44%
▼ -11bp
BoT WAR · vs prior auction
364-day T-bill
6.74%
▲ +20bp
BoT WAR · vs prior auction
Inflation
4.2%
latest print
NBS · monthly
The read: the Friday close, with the move across the whole week beside it; not the one-session change the daily Brief shows. The implication: the index level alone never says whether the week was broad or carried by a couple of names; breadth and turnover do.
DSE weekly tape check
DSE · 4 verified sessions to 2026-07-10 · Tue 7 Jul; Saba Saba Day, market holiday
Sessions
4
verified DSE closes
Weekly turnover
TZS 159.9bn
sum of the week's value traded
Breadth
0 up / 0 down
0 unchanged · counters that moved across the week
Best session
-0.02%
2026-07-08
Worst session
-0.33%
2026-07-06
Peak concentration
98%
CRDB carried 2026-07-10
Concentration by session; the top name’s share of each session’s turnover
2026-07-06 · NMB
63%
2026-07-08 · NMB
52%
2026-07-09 · NMB
40%
2026-07-10 · CRDB
98%
What the index hid: highly concentrated; the single heaviest name took 98% of one session’s turnover. A week can look active and still be carried by one counter. Each close, fully broken down; After the Bell →
The hurdle rate
Bank of Tanzania · WARs as at 2026-08-12
CBR · policy anchor
6.25%
91-day WAR · the front end
3.44%
182-day WAR
5.18%
364-day WAR · income anchor
6.74%
How to read this: short government paper is the opportunity cost of taking equity risk. Why it matters: the higher the front end sits, the more dividends, earnings growth and liquidity equities must deliver to clear it. Educational; not advice.
The transmission chain
How a weaker shilling reaches the shopping basket
The shilling
USD/TZS 2,645
▲ +0.19%
2026-08-17 · Bank of Tanzania
→
Fuel cap
Diesel TZS 3,978/l
▼ -4.88%
2026-08 · EWURA · monthly cap
→
Food
Maize TZS 77,750/t
flat
2026-07-31 · Wholesale · MIT
→
Cost of living
CPI 4.2%
latest print
May 2026 headline · NBS · monthly
How to read this: each link carries its own authority and its own lag; FX moves daily, fuel caps monthly, food weekly, CPI monthly. Why it matters: this is the chain that turns a currency move into a cost-of-living move. Descriptive, not predictive; the links are shown, not forecast.
KANZA CAPITAL PARTNERSThe Weekly Brief
The DSE week to 10 Jul
DSEI -0.83% · TSI -0.88% · USD/TZS +0.19% on the week
Read: Headline and domestic agreed, the shilling gave ground.
Weekly moves computed from verified closes · 2026-07-10kanzacapitalpartners.com · education, not advice
The week card; built to be screenshotted and shared. Every figure is computed from the verified record.
The week in 90 seconds
Four sessions, four declines: the DSE gives back a little of its record, and one CRDB crossing carries the tape
One CRDB crossing was 98% of Friday's tape; the index never showed it
No auction this week; the hurdle rate is unchanged, and the bill curve stays steep
Orderly retreat. The market gave back a slice of its 3 Jul record across four straight small declines, with breadth clearly negative (7 up / 16 down); this was broad, low-conviction selling rather than one name cracking. Rates did not move: no auction fell in the week, so the 6.25% CBR and a still-steep bill curve set an unchanged hurdle. The week's one genuinely large event, a TZS 137.7bn CRDB crossing on Friday, never showed up in the index at all.
Equities
Four sessions, four declines; 7 up / 16 down; broad, shallow, unhurried.
Rates
No auction this week. CBR 6.25%; 91-day 3.45%, 364-day 7.12%; hurdle unchanged.
FX / Gold
Quiet: shilling −0.19% on the week, gold −1.3%. Neither changes the arithmetic.
Policy
Vision 2050 (17 Jul) is next week's set-piece; financing vehicles the open question.
Risk
Political calm held after Saba Saba; the watch is execution, not the headline.
Educational reading of the week · not advice
What this week means
New Tanzanian investor
A −0.83% week sounds dramatic; it isn't. What matters is that far more names fell than rose (16 down, 7 up); breadth tells you how broad a move really was, where the index alone can't.
Diaspora investor
In TZS the market fell 0.83%; the shilling also eased 0.19%, so a hard-currency reader lost a little more than the index implies. Currency is part of the return.
Institutional reader
Friday's CRDB crossing was 98% of the day's turnover; a reminder that DSE liquidity is episodic, and that a single block can dwarf a week of ordinary trade.
Foreign investor
The 364-day bill at 7.12% is the hurdle any equity allocation must clear. With the CBR at 6.25% and no auction this week, that hurdle did not move.
Educational interpretation by reader type · not personalised advice.
Did the domestic-only and all-share indices tell the same story over the covered quarter?
The domestic market against the headline index
2026-04-09 = 100 · frozen at the 2026-07-10 covered session
+3.9%TSI · quarter+4.6%DSEI · quarter
Coverage 2026-04-09 → 2026-07-10Vintage 2026-07-10 · finalRevision current · v0
Only declared transformations and compatible comparisons are enabled. The exact state is retained in the URL.
Reuse package · edition 2026-07-10-77bc1a941dbd
The domestic market against the headline index. Exact values underlying the chart.
Citation and sharing permitted; observation download remains source-restricted.
Read: The rebased paths show the part of the domestic move that the broader headline index does; and does not; capture.
Index scope differs. Neither line is the return of every constituent or of a reader’s portfolio.
The week in review
Four sessions, four declines: the DSE gives back a little of its record, and one CRDB crossing carries the tape
Signal
4,082.43 closed the Saba Saba-shortened week down 0.83%, 8,918.27 down 0.88%; every session lower, none by more than a third of a percent.
Why it matters
It is the first pullback from the 3 Jul record. The drift was orderly, but breadth was clearly negative; 7 counters up against 16 down; so the selling was broad, not a one-name story.
What to watch
Whether the 17 Jul Vision 2050 launch and the ~16 Jul auction give the tape a reason to re-engage, and whether bank breadth reasserts.
A sourced review of the full Tanzania market week: the DSE tape and who actually carried it, rates, FX, policy, macro, companies; and what to watch next. Prefer the weekend digest to a daily note? Choose weekly only.
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Rates
No auction this week; the hurdle rate is unchanged, and the bill curve stays steep
Signal
CBR 6.25%; the 2 Jul auction left the 91-day WAR at 3.45% and the 364-day at 7.12%. Nothing repriced between Monday and Friday.
Why it matters
The front end sits ~280bp BELOW the policy rate while the 364-day sits above it; policy is not yet passing through to short bills.
What to watch
The next auction (~16 Jul) is the test of whether the front end follows the CBR or stays pinned.
Source: BoT · Edition 11 Jul 2026 · Data as reported · interpretation: Medium confidence
Vision 2050 lands Friday; the financing vehicles are the market's real question
Signal
Dira 2050 launches in Dodoma on 17 Jul; the first five-year tranche is funded at TZS 12.50tn, with donor grants set to fall ~39%.
Why it matters
The $1tn path leans on mobilising private and external capital. Named vehicles; LNG-Lindi foremost; would be the first hard evidence.
What to watch
Which flagship projects get named financing vehicles and co-investors, and any MoUs signed around 17 Jul.
Source: Open-source reporting · Edition 11 Jul 2026 · Data open-source · interpretation: Medium confidence
The Ghost
The model book
The Ghost's hypothetical TZS 500m model book is +4.12% since inception; its largest equity allocation is a bank, so a week of negative bank breadth is the terrain it reads most closely.
Ghost relevance: The model book's largest equity allocation is a bank (NMB, +1.58% on the week) while the other large bank (CRDB) fell 3.93%; the week widened the gap between them. Educational only; a model-book allocation, never a position or a recommendation.
How these were chosen: not hand-picked; the name that carried the tape, the week’s biggest gain and steepest fall, then the heaviest remaining names. Educational context only; not a recommendation, and never a price target.
The set-piece of the week: which flagship projects get named financing vehicles and co-investors.
~Thu 16 Jul 2026
T-bill auction (No. 1203)
First auction since 2 Jul; tests whether the front end follows the 6.25% CBR or stays ~280bp below it.
~mid-Jul 2026
June CPI print
First inflation-band test after the fuel-subsidy exit and the 2 Jul hike.
Mon 13 Jul 2026
CRDB follow-through
Whether Friday's block crossing draws a second tranche, or the price steadies once it clears.
Get the Weekly Brief every weekend.
A sourced review of the full Tanzania market week: the DSE tape and who actually carried it, rates, FX, policy, macro, companies; and what to watch next. Prefer the weekend digest to a daily note? Choose weekly only.
Choose Daily, Weekly, or both; they are separate subscriptions. Information and education only. No advice. No noise. Unsubscribe anytime.
Weekly edition; covers verified DSE sessions Monday to Friday, frozen to the Friday official close. Compiled from open-source reporting for information and education only; not investment advice. Equity and index figures reconcile to the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange verified close (10 Jul 2026); rates, FX and gold to the Bank of Tanzania. Figures are as reported and require refresh against official data.