USD / TZS 2,632Gold · $/oz $4,168BoT rate 6.25%Inflation 4.2% 8 Jul 2026 verified close
Tanzania Intelligence

The Brief

Vol. I · No. 190
Thursday, 9 July 2026
Verified closeDSE · BoT · frozen to the covered session8 Jul 2026 verified close

A daily reading of Tanzania’s markets, capital and policy, with regional and global forces when they materially change the read. Information and education, never advice.

The Brief is written the morning after the market closes. This edition analyses Wednesday, 8 July 2026; the most recent verified session. Its figures are frozen to that close; for today’s live moves see Markets.

DSE All-Share
4,102.06▼ 0.02%
DSEI · 8 Jul close · latest verified (Wk28 tape pending)
Tanzania Share Index
8,959.11
TSI · 8 Jul · domestic
USD / TZS
2,632
BoT mean · latest sheet · −7.4% YTD
Gold · $/oz
$4,168
BoT ref · latest mark ≈TZS 10.96m/oz
BoT rate
6.25%
CBR · Q3 2026
91-day T-bill
3.40%
BoT WAR · latest auction
364-day T-bill
6.65%
BoT WAR · latest auction
Inflation
4.2%
NBS · May 2026 headline
Today in 60 seconds
  1. Saba Saba reframed as a managed trade showcase as the runway to the 17 July Vision 2050 launch clears
  2. The DSE reopens after Saba Saba with the verified tape at 4,102 and Week 28 breadth the open question
  3. The front end waits on auction No. 1203: 91-day bills at 3.45% sit ~280bp below the 6.25% CBR
WatchJune CPI print~mid-Jul 2026
Read the full Brief ↓

Did the domestic market and the headline index move together or apart over the covered quarter?

The domestic market against the headline index

Cumulative TSI return minus cumulative DSEI return · frozen at the 2026-07-08 covered session

-1.04 ppCurrent spread+1.52 ppHighest spread-2.06 ppLowest spread
Coverage 2026-04-10 → 2026-07-08 Vintage 2026-07-08 · final Revision current · v0
The domestic market against the headline index. Exact values underlying the chart.
DateRelationshipCumulative gap (pp)
2026-04-10Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0
2026-04-13Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.05
2026-04-14Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.06
2026-04-15Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.18
2026-04-16Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.16
2026-04-17Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.35
2026-04-20Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.34
2026-04-21Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.2
2026-04-22Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.29
2026-04-23Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.28
2026-04-24Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.69
2026-04-27Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.76
2026-04-28Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.53
2026-04-29Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.1
2026-04-30Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.27
2026-05-04Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.03
2026-05-05Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.22
2026-05-06Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.51
2026-05-07Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.77
2026-05-08Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.55
2026-05-11Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.07
2026-05-12Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.34
2026-05-13Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.17
2026-05-14Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.46
2026-05-15Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.49
2026-05-18Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.37
2026-05-19Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.32
2026-05-20Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.2
2026-05-21Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.08
2026-05-22Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.11
2026-05-25Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.65
2026-05-26Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.82
2026-05-28Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.12
2026-05-29Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.02
2026-06-01Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.13
2026-06-02Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.47
2026-06-03Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.23
2026-06-04Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.33
2026-06-05Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.52
2026-06-08Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.36
2026-06-09Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.07
2026-06-10Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.69
2026-06-11Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.49
2026-06-12Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.17
2026-06-15Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.23
2026-06-16Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.08
2026-06-17Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.17
2026-06-18Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.66
2026-06-19Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.54
2026-06-22Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.16
2026-06-23Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.36
2026-06-24Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.46
2026-06-25Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-1.44
2026-06-26Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-2
2026-06-29Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-2.06
2026-06-30Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-1.79
2026-07-01Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-1.07
2026-07-02Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-1.28
2026-07-03Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.97
2026-07-06Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.81
2026-07-08Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-1.04

Read: Above zero means the domestic index led. Below zero means the all-share led. A flat line near zero means their paths were similar.

Index scope differs. The measure adds only sessions with comparable published returns and is not a portfolio return. The excluded session remains disclosed in the values table.

Political Risk

Saba Saba reframed as a managed trade showcase as the runway to the 17 July Vision 2050 launch clears

Signal

Saba Saba passed as a state-managed trade showcase; the President handing awards at the Dar trade fair; not the feared flashpoint.

Why it matters

Deterrence held and the path to the 17 Jul Dodoma launch is clear; quiet-by-management is not quiet-by-consent; the reform grievance is deferred.

What to watch

Which ≈TZS 120tn anchor projects; LNG-Lindi foremost; get named financing vehicles from the 17 Jul podium.

Source: Open-source reporting · Edition 9 Jul 2026 · Data open-source · interpretation: Medium confidence
Markets

The DSE reopens after Saba Saba with the verified tape at 4,102 and Week 28 breadth the open question

Signal

The DSE returns from the holiday with the last verified close at 4,102.06 (8 Jul, −0.02%); the Week 28 tape is not yet reported.

Why it matters

Week 27 banks led breadth +4.80% w/w on CRDB and NMB; the test is whether that momentum survived the pause at normal turnover.

What to watch

The Week 28 report (9 to 11 Jul) and whether bank breadth and foreign flow held post-holiday.

Source: DSE · Edition 9 Jul 2026 · Data verified · interpretation: Medium confidence
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Rates

The front end waits on auction No. 1203: 91-day bills at 3.45% sit ~280bp below the 6.25% CBR

Signal

Auction No. 1202 (2 Jul) cleared the 91-day at 3.4549% and the 364-day at 7.1175% on 3.6x demand; re-verified 9 Jul from bot.go.tz.

Why it matters

No. 1203, due ~16 Jul, is the first real test of policy pass-through; whether bill yields follow the CBR higher or demand keeps them pinned.

What to watch

The 91-day WAR at No. 1203 and whether the 364-day holds above 7%.

Source: Bank of Tanzania · Edition 9 Jul 2026 · Data verified · interpretation: Medium confidence
Macro

Current-account deficit widening on imports is the counterweight to a +5.9% TRA revenue beat

Signal

BoT reporting flags a widening current-account deficit on imports, set against TRA collections of TZS 30.18tn (+5.9% vs estimate) to March.

Why it matters

External balance is the check on the revenue story; ~4.3 months of import cover is the FX/reserves buffer to watch as import demand runs.

What to watch

Reserve cover and USD/TZS (BoT mean 2,632) as the import bill runs against the fiscal take.

Source: Bank of Tanzania · Edition 9 Jul 2026 · Data verified · interpretation: Medium confidence
Macro

June CPI print, due this week, is the first band test after the fuel-subsidy exit and the 50bp hike

Signal

June CPI, scheduled 8 Jul, is the first test of the 3 to 5% band after the fuel-subsidy exit and 50bp hike; not yet independently verified.

Why it matters

May headline held at 4.2% with transport +11.9% y/y and diesel +13.8%; June is where the fuel pass-through shows up in the band.

What to watch

The June CPI band test, then T-bill auction No. 1203 around 16 Jul.

Source: Open-source reporting · Edition 9 Jul 2026 · Data open-source · interpretation: Medium confidence
The Ghost

The model book

The Ghost's hypothetical TZS 500m book is +4.29% since inception, with NMB Bank its largest equity position.

Ghost relevance: how today’s rates, FX, gold and inflation read against a hypothetical model-book; educational, not advice.

Open the Ghost tracker → The terrain it reads →
Week ahead; what to watch
WhenEventWhy it matters
~mid-Jul 2026June CPI print
9-11 Jul 2026DSE Week 28 tape & report
~16 Jul 2026BoT T-bill auction No. 1203
17 Jul 2026Vision 2050 formal launch, Dodoma
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A free daily Tanzania market-intelligence note covering DSE moves, rates, FX, policy, macro signals and what to watch next.

Information and education only. No advice. No noise. Unsubscribe anytime.

Compiled from open-source reporting for information and education only; not investment advice. Equity and index figures reconcile to the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange verified close (8 Jul 2026); rates, FX and gold to the Bank of Tanzania. Figures are as reported and require refresh against official data.

Archive; past editions59
Both main indices rose again, while two banks carried most trading valueTuesday, 8 September 2026Both main indices rose, but two banks still carried most trading valueMonday, 7 September 2026Index direction, trading breadth and Wednesday's bill auction set the next testsSunday, 6 September 2026The broad market rose while Tanzania-listed shares ended lowerSaturday, 5 September 2026CRDB supplied more than three quarters of Thursday's equity turnoverFriday, 4 September 2026Wednesday's DSE close combined a higher DSEI with a lower TSIThursday, 3 September 2026Tuesday's indices weakened while NMB carried most trading valueWednesday, 2 September 2026Monday eased while one bank carried most trading valueTuesday, 1 September 2026Friday rose, but one bank still carried most trading valueMonday, 31 August 2026Comparability, liquidity breadth and Wednesday's bond auction set the next evidence testsSunday, 30 August 2026Index returns stayed unavailable as Friday liquidity remained concentratedSaturday, 29 August 2026DSE index returns went unavailable as NMB carried 89.8% of turnoverFriday, 28 August 2026Mobile access widened as the verified tape strengthened and bill yields fellThursday, 27 August 2026Swissport’s cash conversion strengthened while DSE index returns remained unavailableWednesday, 26 August 2026The DSE scale changed while the underlying equity tape remained activeTuesday, 25 August 2026The DSE indices eased as CRDB carried most verified turnoverMonday, 24 August 2026A split index tape, lighter Friday liquidity and stable FX set up the next evidence testsSunday, 23 August 2026The All-Share rose, the domestic tape slipped and liquidity thinned into FridaySaturday, 22 August 2026DSEI edged up as CRDB led the verified turnover poolFriday, 21 August 2026DSEI rose as NMB carried 59.2% of turnoverThursday, 20 August 2026Friday's wider advance still depended on three counters for 84.7% of turnoverMonday, 17 August 2026NMB mechanics and a long-bond auction turn last week's gains into tests of market depthSunday, 16 August 2026Both indices rose, but five-session turnover still depended on a few namesSaturday, 15 August 2026Both headline indices accelerated; NMB still carried 66.1% of turnoverFriday, 14 August 2026Both headline indices advanced; NMB still carried 72.5% of turnoverThursday, 13 August 2026Both headline indices fell; two banks still carried 87.6% of turnoverWednesday, 12 August 2026Inflation rose to 4.2%; transport remained the pressure pointTuesday, 11 August 2026An official curve arrives; market depth is the testMonday, 10 August 2026A narrow equity tape meets a dated rates test while credit evidence awaits confirmationSunday, 9 August 2026The indices eased, two banks carried the money, and private credit acceleratedSaturday, 8 August 2026Private credit accelerated to 28.1% as the equity tape split againFriday, 7 August 2026DSEI rose, TSI fell as NMB carried 67.2% of turnoverThursday, 6 August 2026Breadth balanced, but CRDB and NMB still carried 73.0% of turnoverWednesday, 5 August 2026The indices barely moved; CRDB and NMB supplied 94.3% of turnoverTuesday, 4 August 2026TZS 30.46bn traded, but TBL carried nearly four shillings in fiveMonday, 3 August 2026Domestic strength enters a breadth test while the next policy and issuer evidence waits on the calendarSunday, 2 August 2026Domestic shares outran the headline index; but two concentrated sessions supplied most of the moneySaturday, 1 August 2026Indices rose, but two banks carried 84.1% of turnoverFriday, 31 July 2026Indices rose, but two banks carried 92.6% of turnoverThursday, 30 July 2026Every domestic index rose, but two banks carried almost nine shillings in tenWednesday, 29 July 2026Money returned, but four counters carried almost eighty-five per cent of the sessionTuesday, 28 July 2026The test week opens: a credit tailwind lands on the banks that sat still through the recordMonday, 27 July 2026A record made on three prints meets its first dated tests; the month-end auction and an FOMC weekSunday, 26 July 2026A record with an asterisk; the All-Share closes at an all-time high in a week more names fell than roseSaturday, 25 July 2026The rise broadens into industrials and services; but CRDB carries more than half the moneyFriday, 24 July 2026The give-back reverses on the heaviest tape in weeks; but three-quarters of it is one Breweries blockThursday, 23 July 2026A second thin give-back leaves the tape 25 points off the high; while the exchange's half-year numbers tell the opposite storyWednesday, 22 July 2026A thin Monday pause nine points under the record, as the rail story hardens from headlines into contractsTuesday, 21 July 2026Monday reopens off Friday's record-adjacent close, into a week with nothing dated on the calendarMonday, 20 July 2026A week with nothing dated on the market calendar; so the question turns to breadth, not dataSunday, 19 July 2026The DSE claws back its early-July dip; up 0.72% on three straight gains, back within a whisker of its recordSaturday, 18 July 2026CRDB supplies 93% of a TZS 55.20bn board while breadth turns negativeFriday, 17 July 2026The crossing did not repeat; turnover falls 28x to TZS 2.71bn and the All-Share gains for the first time in seven sessionsThursday, 16 July 2026CRDB alone was 97% of Tuesday's board; TZS 73.4bn on 27.2m shares as the All-Share eased a sixth sessionWednesday, 15 July 2026Inflation eases to 4.0% in June; the first read after the fuel-subsidy exit and the 50bp hike passes the band testTuesday, 14 July 2026The DSE reopens at 4,082.43 with four declines behind it and the week's two dated events aheadMonday, 13 July 2026Two dated events, one question: what the hurdle rate is, and who pays for the ambitionSunday, 12 July 2026Four sessions, four declines: the DSE gives back a little of its record, and one CRDB crossing carries the tapeSaturday, 11 July 2026The DSE eases in its first full session back as a mild foreign net-selling tilt meets thin breadthFriday, 10 July 2026