KCP. USD/TZS 2,645
Tanzania Share Index 9,218.54 ▲ 0.5%USD / TZS 2,649.75 ▲ 0.07%BoT rate 6.25%Inflation 4.0% 30 Jul 2026 verified close
Tanzania Intelligence

The Brief

Vol. I · No. 212
Friday, 31 July 2026
Verified closeDSE · BoT · frozen to the covered session30 Jul 2026 verified close

A daily reading of Tanzania’s markets, capital and policy, with regional and global forces when they materially change the read. Information and education, never advice.

The Brief is written the morning after the market closes. This edition analyses Thursday, 30 July 2026; the most recent verified session. Its figures are frozen to that close; for today’s live moves see Markets.


DSE All-Share
4,194.87▲ 0.52%
30 Jul close · latest verified
Tanzania Share Index
9,218.54
TSI · 30 Jul · domestic
USD / TZS
2,649.75▲ 0.07%
BoT mean · 31 Jul sheet
BoT rate
6.25%
Q3 2026 CBR
91-day T-bill
3.44%
BoT WAR · latest auction
364-day T-bill
6.74%
BoT WAR · latest auction
Inflation
4.0%
June · inside 3 to 5% band
Today in 60 seconds
  1. Indices rose, but two banks carried 84.1% of turnover
  2. NMB's first-half profit grew as funding costs rose faster
  3. The cash-lite mandate widens after TIPS activity accelerated
Watch31 Jul DSE closeAfter today's session
Read the full Brief ↓

Did the domestic-only and all-share indices tell the same story over the covered quarter?

The domestic market against the headline index

2026-04-29 = 100 · frozen at the 2026-07-30 covered session

+6.6%TSI · quarter+7.1%DSEI · quarter
Coverage 2026-04-29 → 2026-07-30 Vintage 2026-07-30 · final Revision current · v0
The domestic market against the headline index. Exact values underlying the chart.
DateIndexRebasedRaw level
2026-04-29Tanzania Share Index1008,651.35
2026-04-30Tanzania Share Index100.27588,675.21
2026-05-04Tanzania Share Index98.92048,557.95
2026-05-05Tanzania Share Index97.67688,450.36
2026-05-06Tanzania Share Index96.56788,354.42
2026-05-07Tanzania Share Index95.72448,281.45
2026-05-08Tanzania Share Index96.78118,372.87
2026-05-11Tanzania Share Index98.30918,505.06
2026-05-12Tanzania Share Index98.29868,504.16
2026-05-13Tanzania Share Index97.87718,467.69
2026-05-14Tanzania Share Index97.29578,417.39
2026-05-15Tanzania Share Index97.19878,409
2026-05-18Tanzania Share Index97.64858,447.91
2026-05-19Tanzania Share Index97.79168,460.29
2026-05-20Tanzania Share Index97.51988,436.78
2026-05-21Tanzania Share Index98.54578,525.53
2026-05-22Tanzania Share Index98.96968,562.21
2026-05-25Tanzania Share Index100.68788,710.85
2026-05-26Tanzania Share Index101.31758,765.33
2026-05-28Tanzania Share Index101.55268,785.67
2026-05-29Tanzania Share Index101.42348,774.49
2026-06-01Tanzania Share Index101.86198,812.43
2026-06-02Tanzania Share Index102.52558,869.84
2026-06-03Tanzania Share Index102.07748,831.07
2026-06-04Tanzania Share Index102.4268,861.23
2026-06-05Tanzania Share Index101.88648,814.55
2026-06-08Tanzania Share Index101.9258,817.89
2026-06-09Tanzania Share Index101.47428,778.89
2026-06-10Tanzania Share Index100.8718,726.7
2026-06-11Tanzania Share Index99.88388,641.3
2026-06-12Tanzania Share Index99.33858,594.12
2026-06-15Tanzania Share Index98.26638,501.36
2026-06-16Tanzania Share Index99.33148,593.51
2026-06-17Tanzania Share Index99.62218,618.66
2026-06-18Tanzania Share Index100.08838,658.99
2026-06-19Tanzania Share Index99.96738,648.52
2026-06-22Tanzania Share Index99.67368,623.11
2026-06-23Tanzania Share Index99.54658,612.12
2026-06-24Tanzania Share Index99.81968,635.74
2026-06-25Tanzania Share Index100.0588,656.37
2026-06-26Tanzania Share Index100.64818,707.42
2026-06-29Tanzania Share Index100.95968,734.37
2026-06-30Tanzania Share Index101.45358,777.1
2026-07-01Tanzania Share Index102.39578,858.61
2026-07-02Tanzania Share Index103.01258,911.97
2026-07-03Tanzania Share Index103.99648,997.09
2026-07-06Tanzania Share Index103.81848,981.69
2026-07-08Tanzania Share Index103.55748,959.11
2026-07-09Tanzania Share Index103.25058,932.56
2026-07-10Tanzania Share Index103.08538,918.27
2026-07-13Tanzania Share Index103.01968,912.59
2026-07-14Tanzania Share Index102.79988,893.57
2026-07-15Tanzania Share Index103.25568,933
2026-07-16Tanzania Share Index103.33988,940.29
2026-07-17Tanzania Share Index103.67548,969.32
2026-07-20Tanzania Share Index103.4798,952.33
2026-07-21Tanzania Share Index103.37628,943.44
2026-07-22Tanzania Share Index103.71278,972.55
2026-07-23Tanzania Share Index104.09179,005.34
2026-07-24Tanzania Share Index103.89148,988.01
2026-07-27Tanzania Share Index104.71739,059.46
2026-07-28Tanzania Share Index105.68179,142.89
2026-07-29Tanzania Share Index106.02479,172.57
2026-07-30Tanzania Share Index106.55619,218.54
2026-04-29DSE All Share1003,915.18
2026-04-30DSE All Share100.10453,919.27
2026-05-04DSE All Share98.9863,875.48
2026-05-05DSE All Share97.99653,836.74
2026-05-06DSE All Share97.16113,804.03
2026-05-07DSE All Share96.5673,780.77
2026-05-08DSE All Share97.41983,814.16
2026-05-11DSE All Share98.49153,856.12
2026-05-12DSE All Share98.7513,866.28
2026-05-13DSE All Share98.16153,843.2
2026-05-14DSE All Share97.85453,831.18
2026-05-15DSE All Share97.79073,828.68
2026-05-18DSE All Share98.12353,841.71
2026-05-19DSE All Share98.2223,845.57
2026-05-20DSE All Share97.82973,830.21
2026-05-21DSE All Share98.58753,859.88
2026-05-22DSE All Share98.9753,875.05
2026-05-25DSE All Share100.16013,921.45
2026-05-26DSE All Share100.61663,939.32
2026-05-28DSE All Share100.55433,936.88
2026-05-29DSE All Share100.51853,935.48
2026-06-01DSE All Share100.84343,948.2
2026-06-02DSE All Share101.15783,960.51
2026-06-03DSE All Share100.96573,952.99
2026-06-04DSE All Share101.20563,962.38
2026-06-05DSE All Share100.48273,934.08
2026-06-08DSE All Share100.68043,941.82
2026-06-09DSE All Share100.52363,935.68
2026-06-10DSE All Share100.31213,927.4
2026-06-11DSE All Share99.52773,896.69
2026-06-12DSE All Share99.30683,888.04
2026-06-15DSE All Share98.62793,861.46
2026-06-16DSE All Share99.54693,897.44
2026-06-17DSE All Share99.92723,912.33
2026-06-18DSE All Share100.89243,950.12
2026-06-19DSE All Share100.64653,940.49
2026-06-22DSE All Share99.96553,913.83
2026-06-23DSE All Share100.04343,916.88
2026-06-24DSE All Share100.41913,931.59
2026-06-25DSE All Share101.63623,979.24
2026-06-26DSE All Share102.80784,025.11
2026-06-29DSE All Share103.18914,040.04
2026-06-30DSE All Share103.41294,048.8
2026-07-01DSE All Share103.62794,057.22
2026-07-02DSE All Share104.4684,090.11
2026-07-03DSE All Share105.14794,116.73
2026-07-06DSE All Share104.79574,102.94
2026-07-08DSE All Share104.77324,102.06
2026-07-09DSE All Share104.44584,089.24
2026-07-10DSE All Share104.27184,082.43
2026-07-13DSE All Share104.22664,080.66
2026-07-14DSE All Share104.20934,079.98
2026-07-15DSE All Share104.49974,091.35
2026-07-16DSE All Share104.79574,102.94
2026-07-17DSE All Share105.02664,111.98
2026-07-20DSE All Share104.79294,102.83
2026-07-21DSE All Share104.52064,092.17
2026-07-22DSE All Share104.76844,101.87
2026-07-23DSE All Share105.04344,112.64
2026-07-24DSE All Share106.00134,150.14
2026-07-27DSE All Share105.78654,141.73
2026-07-28DSE All Share106.3414,163.44
2026-07-29DSE All Share106.58854,173.13
2026-07-30DSE All Share107.14374,194.87

Read: The rebased paths show the part of the domestic move that the broader headline index does; and does not; capture.

Index scope differs. Neither line is the return of every constituent or of a reader’s portfolio.

DSE Tape Check

Market breadth
Broad decline
6 rose, 15 fell
Advancers against decliners on the verified DSE close.
Turnover concentration
Block-driven
One name carried the tape
NMB Bank was 64% of turnover; index moves overstate how broad the day really was.

Descriptive flags from the verified DSE close; not signals, predictions, or advice. The official close, fully broken down; After the Bell →

Verified close

Indices rose, but two banks carried 84.1% of turnover

Signal

4,194.87 rose 0.52% and 9,218.54 0.50%; turnover was TZS 6.45bn, with NMB and CRDB supplying 84.1%.

Why it matters

Fifteen counters fell and only six rose, so positive indices still rested on narrow funded participation.

What to watch

Whether Friday's close gains breadth and value spreads beyond NMB and CRDB.

Source: DSE · Observed 30 Jul 2026
Go deeper →
Banking

NMB's first-half profit grew as funding costs rose faster

Signal

H1 PAT rose 13.2% to TZS 405.766bn; loans rose 8.6%, deposits 1.0% and the NPL ratio eased to 2.5%.

Why it matters

Net interest and fee income grew, but interest expense rose 36%; Q1 plus Q2 also differs from printed H1 by TZS 8m.

What to watch

Funding costs, loan seasoning, deposit growth and whether returns stabilise after reported ROAA and ROAE eased.

Source: NMB Bank · Edition 31 Jul 2026 · Data as reported · interpretation: Medium confidence
Go deeper →
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Payments

The cash-lite mandate widens after TIPS activity accelerated

Signal

The rules extend mandatory e-payments; TIPS processed 651m transactions worth TZS 54.95tn in 2025.

Why it matters

Formal rails can widen fee and float pools, but interoperability, security, rural access and acceptance remain the execution test.

What to watch

Implementation scope, merchant coverage and the next verified transaction-volume disclosure.

Source: The Citizen · citing 2026 regulations, Budget and BoT Governor · Edition 31 Jul 2026 · Data as reported · interpretation: Medium confidence
Agriculture

The edible-oil strategy prices ambition before funding

Signal

The plan says Tanzania produces about 40% of a 732,000-tonne need and requires about TZS 959bn over ten years.

Why it matters

It targets import substitution, but the financing requirement is not committed capital and instruments remain unspecified.

What to watch

Costed budget lines, private commitments, acreage baselines, tariff changes and enforceable milestones.

Source: The Citizen · strategy forum reporting · Edition 31 Jul 2026 · Data as reported · interpretation: Medium confidence
Foreign exchange

The shilling softened modestly on the official daily sheets

Signal

BoT's 31 July mean was TZS 2,649.75 per US dollar, 0.07% weaker than 30 July and 0.47% weaker than 24 July.

Why it matters

Both moves remain below half a per cent, so the latest sheets show mild weakening rather than a large break.

What to watch

The next official BoT sheet and whether later observations extend beyond the current sub-half-percent move.

Source: Bank of Tanzania · Edition 31 Jul 2026 · Data verified · interpretation: Medium confidence
Go deeper →
The Ghost

The model book

The Ghost's hypothetical TZS 500m model book is +8.89% since inception at its 30 Jul mark. NMB's first-half growth, faster funding costs and dominant session turnover are terrain for studying concentration and earnings quality, not trades.

Ghost relevance: how today’s rates, FX, gold and inflation read against a hypothetical model-book; educational, not advice.

Open the Ghost tracker → The terrain it reads →
Week ahead; what to watch
WhenEventWhy it matters
After today's session31 Jul DSE closeThe next close tests whether the index advance gains breadth after only six names rose and NMB plus CRDB carried 84.1% of turnover.
Date unannouncedNext verified BoT T-bill resultAuction No. 1203 remains latest; the next posted result tests whether the 91-day yield remains about 290bp below the 6.25% CBR.
Implementation follow-upEdible-oil strategy financing instrumentsCosted lines, TADB facilities and private commitments are needed before the TZS 959bn requirement can be treated as mobilised capital.
20 to 24 Aug 2026NMB share-subdivision windowThe pause, register close and restart create an observable test of order count, spread and traded-value depth.
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Compiled from public sources for information and education only; not investment advice, and not a forecast. Equity and index figures reconcile to the DSE verified close (30 Jul 2026); rates and FX to BoT; inflation to NBS. The current Wire hand-off was read first: its NMB primary filing is included. Two duplicate Vodacom primary cards were deliberately omitted because the audited results were covered in the 30 Jul edition and supplied no distinct new fact. The electronic-payments and edible-oil stories use press-reported evidence and retain those limits. Foreign-flow data was unavailable in the official session snapshot and is omitted. For live levels see Markets.

Archive; past editions56
Friday's wider advance still depended on three counters for 84.7% of turnoverMonday, 17 August 2026NMB mechanics and a long-bond auction turn last week's gains into tests of market depthSunday, 16 August 2026Both indices rose, but five-session turnover still depended on a few namesSaturday, 15 August 2026Both headline indices accelerated; NMB still carried 66.1% of turnoverFriday, 14 August 2026Both headline indices advanced; NMB still carried 72.5% of turnoverThursday, 13 August 2026Both headline indices fell; two banks still carried 87.6% of turnoverWednesday, 12 August 2026Inflation rose to 4.2%; transport remained the pressure pointTuesday, 11 August 2026An official curve arrives; market depth is the testMonday, 10 August 2026A narrow equity tape meets a dated rates test while credit evidence awaits confirmationSunday, 9 August 2026The indices eased, two banks carried the money, and private credit acceleratedSaturday, 8 August 2026Private credit accelerated to 28.1% as the equity tape split againFriday, 7 August 2026DSEI rose, TSI fell as NMB carried 67.2% of turnoverThursday, 6 August 2026Breadth balanced, but CRDB and NMB still carried 73.0% of turnoverWednesday, 5 August 2026The indices barely moved; CRDB and NMB supplied 94.3% of turnoverTuesday, 4 August 2026TZS 30.46bn traded, but TBL carried nearly four shillings in fiveMonday, 3 August 2026Domestic strength enters a breadth test while the next policy and issuer evidence waits on the calendarSunday, 2 August 2026Domestic shares outran the headline index; but two concentrated sessions supplied most of the moneySaturday, 1 August 2026Indices rose, but two banks carried 92.6% of turnoverThursday, 30 July 2026Every domestic index rose, but two banks carried almost nine shillings in tenWednesday, 29 July 2026Money returned, but four counters carried almost eighty-five per cent of the sessionTuesday, 28 July 2026The test week opens: a credit tailwind lands on the banks that sat still through the recordMonday, 27 July 2026A record made on three prints meets its first dated tests; the month-end auction and an FOMC weekSunday, 26 July 2026A record with an asterisk; the All-Share closes at an all-time high in a week more names fell than roseSaturday, 25 July 2026The rise broadens into industrials and services; but CRDB carries more than half the moneyFriday, 24 July 2026The give-back reverses on the heaviest tape in weeks; but three-quarters of it is one Breweries blockThursday, 23 July 2026A second thin give-back leaves the tape 25 points off the high; while the exchange's half-year numbers tell the opposite storyWednesday, 22 July 2026A thin Monday pause nine points under the record, as the rail story hardens from headlines into contractsTuesday, 21 July 2026Monday reopens off Friday's record-adjacent close, into a week with nothing dated on the calendarMonday, 20 July 2026A week with nothing dated on the market calendar; so the question turns to breadth, not dataSunday, 19 July 2026The DSE claws back its early-July dip; up 0.72% on three straight gains, back within a whisker of its recordSaturday, 18 July 2026CRDB supplies 93% of a TZS 55.20bn board while breadth turns negativeFriday, 17 July 2026The crossing did not repeat; turnover falls 28x to TZS 2.71bn and the All-Share gains for the first time in seven sessionsThursday, 16 July 2026CRDB alone was 97% of Tuesday's board; TZS 73.4bn on 27.2m shares as the All-Share eased a sixth sessionWednesday, 15 July 2026Inflation eases to 4.0% in June; the first read after the fuel-subsidy exit and the 50bp hike passes the band testTuesday, 14 July 2026The DSE reopens at 4,082.43 with four declines behind it and the week's two dated events aheadMonday, 13 July 2026Two dated events, one question: what the hurdle rate is, and who pays for the ambitionSunday, 12 July 2026Four sessions, four declines: the DSE gives back a little of its record, and one CRDB crossing carries the tapeSaturday, 11 July 2026The DSE eases in its first full session back as a mild foreign net-selling tilt meets thin breadthFriday, 10 July 2026Saba Saba reframed as a managed trade showcase as the runway to the 17 July Vision 2050 launch clearsThursday, 9 July 2026Saba Saba passes as a shutdown, not a clash: Kariakoo deserted under heavy security as the market reopensWednesday, 8 July 2026Saba Saba day: DSE closed and security deployed across Dar, with a quiet commemoration the base caseTuesday, 7 July 2026Saba Saba eve: rally ban enforced with deployments across Dar as the TPDF warns off protest callsMonday, 6 July 2026Bank of Tanzania lifts the policy rate to 6.25%, the first tightening of the cycleSunday, 5 July 2026DSE All-Share caps a record week at 4,116.73 with a third straight all-time highSaturday, 4 July 2026DSE All-Share extends the record run to 4,090.11 as banks carry the fiscal-year openFriday, 3 July 2026DSE All-Share opens the fiscal year at a record 4,057.22 as domestic counters leadThursday, 2 July 2026Tanzania's record budget and Vision 2050 take legal effect as the execution clock startsWednesday, 1 July 2026Tanzania's record budget and DIRA 2050 take legal effect tomorrow as the fiscal year turnsTuesday, 30 June 2026DIRA 2050's implementation instruments launch today as Tanzania's new fiscal year opensMonday, 29 June 2026Tanzania opens its new fiscal year: DIRA 2050 instruments launch Monday, DSE reopens above 4,000Sunday, 28 June 2026DSE All-Share jumps 2.38% to 4,025 as cross-listed banks outpace the domestic tapeFriday, 26 June 2026Tanzania enters 2026/27 with a record budget and a 25-year horizonThursday, 25 June 2026Vision 2050 launch nears as DIRA planning instruments reach parliamentWednesday, 24 June 2026DIRA 2050 launches 1 July with a $47bn strategic-project spineTuesday, 23 June 2026TZS 62.33tn FY2026/27 budget takes effect 1 JulyMonday, 22 June 2026Samia to launch Vision (Dira) 2050 instruments on 29 JuneSunday, 21 June 2026