USD / TZS 2,639.85Gold $4,047BoT rate 6.25%Inflation 4.0% 27 Jul 2026 verified close
Tanzania Intelligence

The Brief

Vol. I · No. 209
Tuesday, 28 July 2026
Verified closeDSE · BoT · frozen to the covered session27 Jul 2026 verified close

A daily reading of Tanzania’s markets, capital and policy, with regional and global forces when they materially change the read. Information and education, never advice.

The Brief is written the morning after the market closes. This edition analyses Monday, 27 July 2026; the most recent verified session. Its figures are frozen to that close; for today’s live moves see Markets.


DSE All-Share
4,141.73▼ 0.2%
27 Jul close · latest verified
Tanzania Share Index
9,059.46
TSI · 27 Jul · domestic
USD / TZS
2,639.85
BoT mean · 27 Jul sheet
BoT rate
6.25%
Q3 2026 CBR
91-day T-bill
3.39%
BoT WAR · latest auction
364-day T-bill
6.29%
BoT WAR · latest auction
Inflation
4.0%
June · inside 3 to 5% band
Today in 60 seconds
  1. Money returned, but four counters carried almost eighty-five per cent of the session
  2. Vodacom's operating growth now has a market price
  3. NMB's split changes the trading ticket, not the economics
WatchUS FOMC decision28 to 29 Jul 2026
Read the full Brief ↓

Did the domestic market and the headline index move together or apart over the covered quarter?

The domestic market against the headline index

Cumulative TSI return minus cumulative DSEI return · frozen at the 2026-07-27 covered session

-0.98 ppCurrent spread+1.42 ppHighest spread-2.16 ppLowest spread
Coverage 2026-04-29 → 2026-07-27 Vintage 2026-07-27 · final Revision current · v0
The domestic market against the headline index. Exact values underlying the chart.
DateRelationshipCumulative gap (pp)
2026-04-29Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0
2026-04-30Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.17
2026-05-04Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.06
2026-05-05Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.32
2026-05-06Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.6
2026-05-07Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.87
2026-05-08Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.64
2026-05-11Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.17
2026-05-12Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.44
2026-05-13Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.27
2026-05-14Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.55
2026-05-15Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.59
2026-05-18Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.47
2026-05-19Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.42
2026-05-20Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.3
2026-05-21Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.02
2026-05-22Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.02
2026-05-25Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.56
2026-05-26Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.73
2026-05-28Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.02
2026-05-29Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.93
2026-06-01Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.04
2026-06-02Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.38
2026-06-03Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.13
2026-06-04Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.23
2026-06-05Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.42
2026-06-08Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.26
2026-06-09Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.98
2026-06-10Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.59
2026-06-11Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.39
2026-06-12Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.07
2026-06-15Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.33
2026-06-16Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.17
2026-06-17Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.26
2026-06-18Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.76
2026-06-19Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.64
2026-06-22Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.25
2026-06-23Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.46
2026-06-24Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.56
2026-06-25Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-1.53
2026-06-26Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-2.1
2026-06-29Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-2.16
2026-06-30Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-1.89
2026-07-01Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-1.17
2026-07-02Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-1.37
2026-07-03Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-1.07
2026-07-06Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.91
2026-07-08Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-1.14
2026-07-09Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-1.12
2026-07-10Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-1.11
2026-07-13Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-1.13
2026-07-14Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-1.33
2026-07-15Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-1.17
2026-07-16Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-1.37
2026-07-17Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-1.26
2026-07-20Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-1.23
2026-07-21Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-1.07
2026-07-22Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.98
2026-07-23Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.88
2026-07-24Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-1.98
2026-07-27Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.98

Read: Above zero means the domestic index led. Below zero means the all-share led. A flat line near zero means their paths were similar.

Index scope differs. The measure adds only sessions with comparable published returns and is not a portfolio return. The excluded session remains disclosed in the values table.

DSE Tape Check

Market breadth
Negative tilt
8 rose, 9 fell
Advancers against decliners on the verified DSE close.

Descriptive flags from the verified DSE close; not signals, predictions, or advice. The official close, fully broken down; After the Bell →

Verified close

Money returned, but four counters carried almost eighty-five per cent of the session

Signal

4,141.73 fell 0.20% while 9,059.46 rose 0.80%; turnover reached TZS 14.38bn, with four counters supplying 84.7%.

Why it matters

Monday added funded activity, but not broad participation: NMB, VODA, TBL and CRDB dominated the tape while the two indices diverged.

What to watch

Whether turnover spreads beyond four names, VODA's move holds on two-sided volume, and the NMB split widens order depth.

Source: DSE · Observed 27 Jul 2026
Go deeper →
Mobile

Vodacom's operating growth now has a market price

Signal

VODA rose 9.7% to TZS 905 on 3.77m shares after service revenue grew 21.7% and EBITDA 37% in Q1 FY2027.

Why it matters

The filing gained a market price, but the soft prior-year base makes the headline growth rates poor run-rate proxies.

What to watch

Whether the 38.3% EBITDA margin holds as capex normalises, finance costs evolve and the next dividend decision is disclosed.

Source: Vodacom Tanzania · DSE · Edition 28 Jul 2026 · Data as reported · interpretation: Medium confidence
Go deeper →
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A free daily Tanzania market-intelligence note covering DSE moves, rates, FX, policy, macro signals and what to watch next.

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Capital markets

NMB's split changes the trading ticket, not the economics

Signal

NMB's 1-for-10 subdivision lifts listed shares from 500m to 5bn; post-split trading starts 24 August, with no value dilution.

Why it matters

The lower trading ticket may widen participation, but it adds no capital and changes no holder's proportionate economic interest.

What to watch

The 20 to 21 August pause, 21 August register close, then order count, spread and turnover after the 24 August restart.

Source: NMB Bank · Edition 28 Jul 2026 · Data as reported · interpretation: Medium confidence
Go deeper →
Manufacturing

Two cement filings show demand and different balance-sheet pressure

Signal

TCCL Q2 net profit rose to TZS 9.4bn from 3.8bn; TPCC's rose 4.5% to TZS 16.78bn as its cost of sales grew 26.5%.

Why it matters

Both filings show construction demand, but balance-sheet choices diverge: TCCL faces refinancing while TPCC prioritised distributions.

What to watch

TCCL's TZS 104bn current borrowings, both firms' margin paths, TPCC capex and any financing or dividend follow-through.

Source: Tanga Cement · Twiga Cement · Edition 28 Jul 2026 · Data as reported · interpretation: Medium confidence
Go deeper →
Policy

External financing and solar delivery move from approval to execution

Signal

IMF reviews released about US$443.8m; Kishapu solar phase two adds a TZS 204.4bn contract and a 17-month delivery clock.

Why it matters

Both are execution stories: one missed IMF criterion and three incomplete reforms remain, while power benefits depend on delivery.

What to watch

The waiver, energy-reform milestones, contractor mobilisation, grid integration and commissioning over the 17-month window.

Source: IMF · TANESCO · Edition 28 Jul 2026 · Data verified · interpretation: Medium confidence
Go deeper →
The Ghost

The model book

The Ghost's hypothetical TZS 500m model book is +6.10% since inception at its 27 Jul mark. VODA's move and NMB's split sit inside a bank-and-mobile-heavy model-book allocation; they are terrain for studying concentration, liquidity and event mechanics, not trades.

Ghost relevance: how today’s rates, FX, gold and inflation read against a hypothetical model-book; educational, not advice.

Open the Ghost tracker → The terrain it reads →
Week ahead; what to watch
WhenEventWhy it matters
28 to 29 Jul 2026US FOMC decisionThe scheduled global-rate event for the dollar backdrop; the following BoT FX sheets show whether the latest shilling drift extends or fades.
≈29 Jul 2026 (inferred cadence, not an official BoT date)T-bill auction No. 1204The next posted result tests whether the 91-day yield remains about 290bp below the 6.25% CBR; the inferred date is not treated as fact.
30 Jul 2026Bank of England decisionThe vote tests the balance between softer activity and energy-linked inflation risk after the June hold at 3.75%.
20 to 24 Aug 2026NMB share-subdivision windowThe pause, register close and restart create the first observable test of whether a lower unit price broadens order depth and participation.
Get the Daily Brief before the market opens.

A free daily Tanzania market-intelligence note covering DSE moves, rates, FX, policy, macro signals and what to watch next.

Information and education only. No advice. No noise. Unsubscribe anytime.

Compiled from public sources for information and education only; not investment advice, and not a forecast. Equity and index figures reconcile to the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange verified close (27 Jul 2026); rates, FX and gold to the Bank of Tanzania; inflation to the NBS. The current Wire hand-off was read first and all four primary-grade corporate candidates were incorporated; the ≈29 Jul auction date is inferred from cadence, not an official calendar entry. For live market levels see Markets.

Archive; past editions59
Can the share-price rise hold across more of the market?Sunday, 27 September 2026Domestic shares rose faster than the wider marketSaturday, 26 September 2026Share indices rose, while two banks carried most trading valueFriday, 25 September 2026Share-price measures fell; two banks carried most trading moneyThursday, 24 September 2026Shares rose, but one bank carried most trading valueWednesday, 23 September 2026Share prices rose, and more traded companies advanced than declinedTuesday, 22 September 2026Share indices fell, with most trading in two banksMonday, 21 September 2026Wednesday tests borrowing costs after a weaker share-trading weekSunday, 20 September 2026Shares fell as less money changed handsSaturday, 19 September 2026Share indices fell as NMB dominated tradingFriday, 18 September 2026Both indices fell as trading stayed narrowThursday, 17 September 2026Indices split, trading stayed concentratedWednesday, 16 September 2026Indices rose, trading stayed narrowTuesday, 15 September 2026Friday gains, concentrated tradingMonday, 14 September 2026Will trading value catch up with rising indices?Sunday, 13 September 2026Share indices rose as less money changed handsSaturday, 12 September 2026Both main indices rose as two banks carried most tradingFriday, 11 September 2026Both main indices rose as equity turnover fell by halfThursday, 10 September 2026The broad index fell while domestic shares edged higherWednesday, 9 September 2026Both main indices rose again, while two banks carried most trading valueTuesday, 8 September 2026Both main indices rose, but two banks still carried most trading valueMonday, 7 September 2026Index direction, trading breadth and Wednesday's bill auction set the next testsSunday, 6 September 2026The broad market rose while Tanzania-listed shares ended lowerSaturday, 5 September 2026CRDB supplied more than three quarters of Thursday's equity turnoverFriday, 4 September 2026Wednesday's DSE close combined a higher DSEI with a lower TSIThursday, 3 September 2026Tuesday's indices weakened while NMB carried most trading valueWednesday, 2 September 2026Monday eased while one bank carried most trading valueTuesday, 1 September 2026Friday rose, but one bank still carried most trading valueMonday, 31 August 2026Comparability, liquidity breadth and Wednesday's bond auction set the next evidence testsSunday, 30 August 2026Index returns stayed unavailable as Friday liquidity remained concentratedSaturday, 29 August 2026DSE index returns went unavailable as NMB carried 89.8% of turnoverFriday, 28 August 2026Mobile access widened as the verified tape strengthened and bill yields fellThursday, 27 August 2026Swissport’s cash conversion strengthened while DSE index returns remained unavailableWednesday, 26 August 2026The DSE scale changed while the underlying equity tape remained activeTuesday, 25 August 2026The DSE indices eased as CRDB carried most verified turnoverMonday, 24 August 2026A split index tape, lighter Friday liquidity and stable FX set up the next evidence testsSunday, 23 August 2026The All-Share rose, the domestic tape slipped and liquidity thinned into FridaySaturday, 22 August 2026DSEI edged up as CRDB led the verified turnover poolFriday, 21 August 2026DSEI rose as NMB carried 59.2% of turnoverThursday, 20 August 2026Friday's wider advance still depended on three counters for 84.7% of turnoverMonday, 17 August 2026NMB mechanics and a long-bond auction turn last week's gains into tests of market depthSunday, 16 August 2026Both indices rose, but five-session turnover still depended on a few namesSaturday, 15 August 2026Both headline indices accelerated; NMB still carried 66.1% of turnoverFriday, 14 August 2026Both headline indices advanced; NMB still carried 72.5% of turnoverThursday, 13 August 2026Both headline indices fell; two banks still carried 87.6% of turnoverWednesday, 12 August 2026Inflation rose to 4.2%; transport remained the pressure pointTuesday, 11 August 2026An official curve arrives; market depth is the testMonday, 10 August 2026A narrow equity tape meets a dated rates test while credit evidence awaits confirmationSunday, 9 August 2026The indices eased, two banks carried the money, and private credit acceleratedSaturday, 8 August 2026Private credit accelerated to 28.1% as the equity tape split againFriday, 7 August 2026DSEI rose, TSI fell as NMB carried 67.2% of turnoverThursday, 6 August 2026Breadth balanced, but CRDB and NMB still carried 73.0% of turnoverWednesday, 5 August 2026The indices barely moved; CRDB and NMB supplied 94.3% of turnoverTuesday, 4 August 2026TZS 30.46bn traded, but TBL carried nearly four shillings in fiveMonday, 3 August 2026Domestic strength enters a breadth test while the next policy and issuer evidence waits on the calendarSunday, 2 August 2026Domestic shares outran the headline index; but two concentrated sessions supplied most of the moneySaturday, 1 August 2026Indices rose, but two banks carried 84.1% of turnoverFriday, 31 July 2026Indices rose, but two banks carried 92.6% of turnoverThursday, 30 July 2026Every domestic index rose, but two banks carried almost nine shillings in tenWednesday, 29 July 2026