KCP. USD/TZS 2,645
Tanzania Share Index 9,169.71 ▼ 0.2%USD / TZS 2,644.79BoT rate 6.25%Inflation 4.0% 7 Aug 2026 verified close
Tanzania Intelligence

The Brief

Vol. I · No. 222
Monday, 10 August 2026
Verified closeDSE · BoT · frozen to the covered session7 Aug 2026 verified close

A daily reading of Tanzania’s markets, capital and policy, with regional and global forces when they materially change the read. Information and education, never advice.

The Brief is written the morning after the market closes. This edition analyses Friday, 7 August 2026; the most recent verified session. Its figures are frozen to that close; for today’s live moves see Markets.


DSE All-Share
4,183.38▲ 0.14%
DSEI · 7 Aug close · latest verified
Tanzania Share Index
9,169.71
TSI · 7 Aug · domestic
USD / TZS
2,644.79
BoT mean · 9 Aug sheet
BoT rate
6.25%
CBR · Q3 2026
91-day T-bill
3.44%
BoT WAR · latest auction
364-day T-bill
6.74%
BoT WAR · latest auction
Inflation
4.0%
BoT MER · June 2026 headline
Today in 60 seconds
  1. An official curve arrives; market depth is the test
  2. BoT’s fitted curve adds a reference; adoption remains unproven
  3. DSEI rose while the domestic-only TSI fell
WatchDSE index direction and turnover distributionafter the 10 Aug session
Read the full Brief ↓

Did the domestic-only and all-share indices tell the same story over the covered quarter?

The domestic market against the headline index

2026-05-07 = 100 · frozen at the 2026-08-07 covered session

+10.7%TSI · quarter+10.6%DSEI · quarter
Coverage 2026-05-07 → 2026-08-07 Vintage 2026-08-07 · final Revision current · v0
The domestic market against the headline index. Exact values underlying the chart.
DateIndexRebasedRaw level
2026-05-07Tanzania Share Index1008,281.45
2026-05-08Tanzania Share Index101.10398,372.87
2026-05-11Tanzania Share Index102.70018,505.06
2026-05-12Tanzania Share Index102.68938,504.16
2026-05-13Tanzania Share Index102.24898,467.69
2026-05-14Tanzania Share Index101.64158,417.39
2026-05-15Tanzania Share Index101.54028,409
2026-05-18Tanzania Share Index102.018,447.91
2026-05-19Tanzania Share Index102.15958,460.29
2026-05-20Tanzania Share Index101.87568,436.78
2026-05-21Tanzania Share Index102.94738,525.53
2026-05-22Tanzania Share Index103.39028,562.21
2026-05-25Tanzania Share Index105.18518,710.85
2026-05-26Tanzania Share Index105.84298,765.33
2026-05-28Tanzania Share Index106.08858,785.67
2026-05-29Tanzania Share Index105.95358,774.49
2026-06-01Tanzania Share Index106.41178,812.43
2026-06-02Tanzania Share Index107.10498,869.84
2026-06-03Tanzania Share Index106.63688,831.07
2026-06-04Tanzania Share Index107.00098,861.23
2026-06-05Tanzania Share Index106.43738,814.55
2026-06-08Tanzania Share Index106.47768,817.89
2026-06-09Tanzania Share Index106.00678,778.89
2026-06-10Tanzania Share Index105.37658,726.7
2026-06-11Tanzania Share Index104.34538,641.3
2026-06-12Tanzania Share Index103.77558,594.12
2026-06-15Tanzania Share Index102.65558,501.36
2026-06-16Tanzania Share Index103.76828,593.51
2026-06-17Tanzania Share Index104.07198,618.66
2026-06-18Tanzania Share Index104.55898,658.99
2026-06-19Tanzania Share Index104.43248,648.52
2026-06-22Tanzania Share Index104.12568,623.11
2026-06-23Tanzania Share Index103.99298,612.12
2026-06-24Tanzania Share Index104.27818,635.74
2026-06-25Tanzania Share Index104.52728,656.37
2026-06-26Tanzania Share Index105.14378,707.42
2026-06-29Tanzania Share Index105.46918,734.37
2026-06-30Tanzania Share Index105.98518,777.1
2026-07-01Tanzania Share Index106.96938,858.61
2026-07-02Tanzania Share Index107.61368,911.97
2026-07-03Tanzania Share Index108.64158,997.09
2026-07-06Tanzania Share Index108.45558,981.69
2026-07-08Tanzania Share Index108.18298,959.11
2026-07-09Tanzania Share Index107.86238,932.56
2026-07-10Tanzania Share Index107.68978,918.27
2026-07-13Tanzania Share Index107.62118,912.59
2026-07-14Tanzania Share Index107.39158,893.57
2026-07-15Tanzania Share Index107.86768,933
2026-07-16Tanzania Share Index107.95568,940.29
2026-07-17Tanzania Share Index108.30628,969.32
2026-07-20Tanzania Share Index108.1018,952.33
2026-07-21Tanzania Share Index107.99368,943.44
2026-07-22Tanzania Share Index108.34528,972.55
2026-07-23Tanzania Share Index108.74119,005.34
2026-07-24Tanzania Share Index108.53188,988.01
2026-07-27Tanzania Share Index109.39469,059.46
2026-07-28Tanzania Share Index110.4029,142.89
2026-07-29Tanzania Share Index110.76049,172.57
2026-07-30Tanzania Share Index111.31559,218.54
2026-07-31Tanzania Share Index111.2759,215.18
2026-08-03Tanzania Share Index111.09379,200.17
2026-08-04Tanzania Share Index110.83989,179.14
2026-08-05Tanzania Share Index110.76689,173.1
2026-08-06Tanzania Share Index110.94249,187.64
2026-08-07Tanzania Share Index110.72599,169.71
2026-05-07DSE All Share1003,780.77
2026-05-08DSE All Share100.88323,814.16
2026-05-11DSE All Share101.9933,856.12
2026-05-12DSE All Share102.26173,866.28
2026-05-13DSE All Share101.65133,843.2
2026-05-14DSE All Share101.33333,831.18
2026-05-15DSE All Share101.26723,828.68
2026-05-18DSE All Share101.61183,841.71
2026-05-19DSE All Share101.71393,845.57
2026-05-20DSE All Share101.30773,830.21
2026-05-21DSE All Share102.09243,859.88
2026-05-22DSE All Share102.49373,875.05
2026-05-25DSE All Share103.72093,921.45
2026-05-26DSE All Share104.19363,939.32
2026-05-28DSE All Share104.12913,936.88
2026-05-29DSE All Share104.0923,935.48
2026-06-01DSE All Share104.42853,948.2
2026-06-02DSE All Share104.75413,960.51
2026-06-03DSE All Share104.55523,952.99
2026-06-04DSE All Share104.80353,962.38
2026-06-05DSE All Share104.0553,934.08
2026-06-08DSE All Share104.25973,941.82
2026-06-09DSE All Share104.09733,935.68
2026-06-10DSE All Share103.87833,927.4
2026-06-11DSE All Share103.0663,896.69
2026-06-12DSE All Share102.83733,888.04
2026-06-15DSE All Share102.13423,861.46
2026-06-16DSE All Share103.08593,897.44
2026-06-17DSE All Share103.47973,912.33
2026-06-18DSE All Share104.47923,950.12
2026-06-19DSE All Share104.22453,940.49
2026-06-22DSE All Share103.51943,913.83
2026-06-23DSE All Share103.60013,916.88
2026-06-24DSE All Share103.98913,931.59
2026-06-25DSE All Share105.24953,979.24
2026-06-26DSE All Share106.46274,025.11
2026-06-29DSE All Share106.85764,040.04
2026-06-30DSE All Share107.08934,048.8
2026-07-01DSE All Share107.3124,057.22
2026-07-02DSE All Share108.18194,090.11
2026-07-03DSE All Share108.8864,116.73
2026-07-06DSE All Share108.52134,102.94
2026-07-08DSE All Share108.4984,102.06
2026-07-09DSE All Share108.15894,089.24
2026-07-10DSE All Share107.97884,082.43
2026-07-13DSE All Share107.9324,080.66
2026-07-14DSE All Share107.9144,079.98
2026-07-15DSE All Share108.21474,091.35
2026-07-16DSE All Share108.52134,102.94
2026-07-17DSE All Share108.76044,111.98
2026-07-20DSE All Share108.51844,102.83
2026-07-21DSE All Share108.23644,092.17
2026-07-22DSE All Share108.4934,101.87
2026-07-23DSE All Share108.77784,112.64
2026-07-24DSE All Share109.76974,150.14
2026-07-27DSE All Share109.54734,141.73
2026-07-28DSE All Share110.12154,163.44
2026-07-29DSE All Share110.37784,173.13
2026-07-30DSE All Share110.95284,194.87
2026-07-31DSE All Share110.83484,190.41
2026-08-03DSE All Share110.75054,187.22
2026-08-04DSE All Share110.63064,182.69
2026-08-05DSE All Share110.79674,188.97
2026-08-06DSE All Share110.49364,177.51
2026-08-07DSE All Share110.64894,183.38

Read: The rebased paths show the part of the domestic move that the broader headline index does; and does not; capture.

Index scope differs. Neither line is the return of every constituent or of a reader’s portfolio.

DSE Tape Check

Market breadth
Positive tilt
9 rose, 7 fell
Advancers against decliners on the verified DSE close.
Turnover concentration
Concentrated
One name carried the tape
NMB Bank was 46% of turnover; index moves overstate how broad the day really was.

Descriptive flags from the verified DSE close; not signals, predictions, or advice. The official close, fully broken down; After the Bell →

Market infrastructure

An official curve arrives; market depth is the test

Signal

BoT’s 6 August curve spans six months to 25 years; 4,183.38 rose 0.14% while 9,169.71 fell 0.20% at the verified close.

Why it matters

The new benchmark clarifies sovereign pricing, but 88.5% of TZS 5.26bn equity turnover remained in NMB and CRDB.

What to watch

Whether issuers and traders use the curve, and whether the next DSE session spreads value beyond the two banks.

Source: Bank of Tanzania and DSE · Edition 10 Aug 2026
Go deeper →
Sovereign benchmark

BoT’s fitted curve adds a reference; adoption remains unproven

Signal

The official fitted curve rises from 4.1894% at 0.5 years to 11.9854% at 25 years across 50 half-year points.

Why it matters

A published reference reduces pricing ambiguity; it does not prove secondary liquidity, issuance or the fitting method.

What to watch

Next evidence: transparent trades or issuance using the curve; the next official curve run is not yet dated.

Source: Bank of Tanzania · Edition 10 Aug 2026 · Data verified · interpretation: Medium confidence
Go deeper →
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Index scope

DSEI rose while the domestic-only TSI fell

Signal

4,183.38 rose 0.14% while 9,169.71 fell 0.20%; the two headline indices again moved in opposite directions.

Why it matters

All-share and domestic-only gauges gave different directions, so the named index still determines what the headline means.

What to watch

The 10 August close tests whether the two indices reconverge and whether sector direction broadens.

Source: DSE · Edition 10 Aug 2026 · Data verified · interpretation: Medium confidence
Go deeper →
Money traded

NMB and CRDB carried 88.5% of session turnover

Signal

NMB and CRDB supplied TZS 4.652bn, or 88.5%, of verified TZS 5.257bn turnover; 21 of 28 counters traded.

Why it matters

Advancers led decliners nine to seven, but traded value remained far narrower than the count of moving counters.

What to watch

Whether the next verified session lowers the two-bank share while keeping at least 21 counters active.

Source: DSE · Edition 10 Aug 2026 · Data verified · interpretation: Medium confidence
Go deeper →
Credit transmission

Private-credit growth accelerated while headline inflation eased

Signal

June private-credit growth reached 28.1%, from 23.2% in May; headline inflation eased to 4.0% and core rose to 3.7%.

Why it matters

Credit transmission strengthened without a headline-inflation break, but sector allocation and durability remain unresolved.

What to watch

The next official Monthly Economic Review tests persistence and whether credit growth broadens across productive sectors.

Source: Bank of Tanzania · Edition 10 Aug 2026 · Data verified · interpretation: Medium confidence
Go deeper →
The Ghost

The model book

The Ghost’s hypothetical TZS 500m model ledger is +8.40% since inception at its 7 Aug mark. The official curve, split indices and concentrated turnover update the observable terrain; not trades.

Ghost relevance: how today’s rates, FX, gold and inflation read against a hypothetical model-book; educational, not advice.

Open the Ghost tracker → The terrain it reads →
Week ahead; what to watch
WhenEventWhy it matters
after the 10 Aug sessionDSE index direction and turnover distributionThe 7 August close split DSEI and TSI while NMB and CRDB supplied 88.5% of equity turnover.
next official trade or issuance evidenceUse of the official sovereign curveThe 6 August fitted curve adds a reference; adoption requires transparent pricing, issuance or secondary-market use.
next BoT dashboard observationNext verified seven-day IBCM observationThe 7 August rate was 6.52%, 27 basis points above the 6.25% CBR; one observation does not establish persistence.
next BoT Monthly Economic Review · date not announcedNext official private-credit publicationJune private-credit growth accelerated to 28.1%; the next report tests persistence and sector allocation.
next official releasePrimary instruments behind weekend project reportsThe Wire handoff carried secondary reports on allocations, financing intent and project backing without governing mechanics.
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Compiled from public sources for information and education only; not investment advice, a forecast or a recommendation. Equity, index, breadth and turnover figures reconcile to the DSE verified close (7 Aug 2026). The sovereign curve, rates, FX, credit and inflation use separately dated Bank of Tanzania records: the curve is the official fitted run of 6 August, the seven-day IBCM observation is 7 August, the USD/TZS mean is from the 9 August sheet, and the macro observations cover June in the July 2026 Monthly Economic Review. The current Wire handoff was read first and contained zero primary-grade candidates; secondary reports on agricultural allocations, development-bank intent, transport announcements and energy-hub backing were not promoted without underlying official mechanics. The fitted curve is not blended with auction observations and its publication does not prove liquidity or adoption. No foreign-flow split, fitting method or same-day DSE close is inferred. Undated checkpoints remain explicitly undated. For live levels, see Markets.

Archive; past editions56
Friday's wider advance still depended on three counters for 84.7% of turnoverMonday, 17 August 2026NMB mechanics and a long-bond auction turn last week's gains into tests of market depthSunday, 16 August 2026Both indices rose, but five-session turnover still depended on a few namesSaturday, 15 August 2026Both headline indices accelerated; NMB still carried 66.1% of turnoverFriday, 14 August 2026Both headline indices advanced; NMB still carried 72.5% of turnoverThursday, 13 August 2026Both headline indices fell; two banks still carried 87.6% of turnoverWednesday, 12 August 2026Inflation rose to 4.2%; transport remained the pressure pointTuesday, 11 August 2026A narrow equity tape meets a dated rates test while credit evidence awaits confirmationSunday, 9 August 2026The indices eased, two banks carried the money, and private credit acceleratedSaturday, 8 August 2026Private credit accelerated to 28.1% as the equity tape split againFriday, 7 August 2026DSEI rose, TSI fell as NMB carried 67.2% of turnoverThursday, 6 August 2026Breadth balanced, but CRDB and NMB still carried 73.0% of turnoverWednesday, 5 August 2026The indices barely moved; CRDB and NMB supplied 94.3% of turnoverTuesday, 4 August 2026TZS 30.46bn traded, but TBL carried nearly four shillings in fiveMonday, 3 August 2026Domestic strength enters a breadth test while the next policy and issuer evidence waits on the calendarSunday, 2 August 2026Domestic shares outran the headline index; but two concentrated sessions supplied most of the moneySaturday, 1 August 2026Indices rose, but two banks carried 84.1% of turnoverFriday, 31 July 2026Indices rose, but two banks carried 92.6% of turnoverThursday, 30 July 2026Every domestic index rose, but two banks carried almost nine shillings in tenWednesday, 29 July 2026Money returned, but four counters carried almost eighty-five per cent of the sessionTuesday, 28 July 2026The test week opens: a credit tailwind lands on the banks that sat still through the recordMonday, 27 July 2026A record made on three prints meets its first dated tests; the month-end auction and an FOMC weekSunday, 26 July 2026A record with an asterisk; the All-Share closes at an all-time high in a week more names fell than roseSaturday, 25 July 2026The rise broadens into industrials and services; but CRDB carries more than half the moneyFriday, 24 July 2026The give-back reverses on the heaviest tape in weeks; but three-quarters of it is one Breweries blockThursday, 23 July 2026A second thin give-back leaves the tape 25 points off the high; while the exchange's half-year numbers tell the opposite storyWednesday, 22 July 2026A thin Monday pause nine points under the record, as the rail story hardens from headlines into contractsTuesday, 21 July 2026Monday reopens off Friday's record-adjacent close, into a week with nothing dated on the calendarMonday, 20 July 2026A week with nothing dated on the market calendar; so the question turns to breadth, not dataSunday, 19 July 2026The DSE claws back its early-July dip; up 0.72% on three straight gains, back within a whisker of its recordSaturday, 18 July 2026CRDB supplies 93% of a TZS 55.20bn board while breadth turns negativeFriday, 17 July 2026The crossing did not repeat; turnover falls 28x to TZS 2.71bn and the All-Share gains for the first time in seven sessionsThursday, 16 July 2026CRDB alone was 97% of Tuesday's board; TZS 73.4bn on 27.2m shares as the All-Share eased a sixth sessionWednesday, 15 July 2026Inflation eases to 4.0% in June; the first read after the fuel-subsidy exit and the 50bp hike passes the band testTuesday, 14 July 2026The DSE reopens at 4,082.43 with four declines behind it and the week's two dated events aheadMonday, 13 July 2026Two dated events, one question: what the hurdle rate is, and who pays for the ambitionSunday, 12 July 2026Four sessions, four declines: the DSE gives back a little of its record, and one CRDB crossing carries the tapeSaturday, 11 July 2026The DSE eases in its first full session back as a mild foreign net-selling tilt meets thin breadthFriday, 10 July 2026Saba Saba reframed as a managed trade showcase as the runway to the 17 July Vision 2050 launch clearsThursday, 9 July 2026Saba Saba passes as a shutdown, not a clash: Kariakoo deserted under heavy security as the market reopensWednesday, 8 July 2026Saba Saba day: DSE closed and security deployed across Dar, with a quiet commemoration the base caseTuesday, 7 July 2026Saba Saba eve: rally ban enforced with deployments across Dar as the TPDF warns off protest callsMonday, 6 July 2026Bank of Tanzania lifts the policy rate to 6.25%, the first tightening of the cycleSunday, 5 July 2026DSE All-Share caps a record week at 4,116.73 with a third straight all-time highSaturday, 4 July 2026DSE All-Share extends the record run to 4,090.11 as banks carry the fiscal-year openFriday, 3 July 2026DSE All-Share opens the fiscal year at a record 4,057.22 as domestic counters leadThursday, 2 July 2026Tanzania's record budget and Vision 2050 take legal effect as the execution clock startsWednesday, 1 July 2026Tanzania's record budget and DIRA 2050 take legal effect tomorrow as the fiscal year turnsTuesday, 30 June 2026DIRA 2050's implementation instruments launch today as Tanzania's new fiscal year opensMonday, 29 June 2026Tanzania opens its new fiscal year: DIRA 2050 instruments launch Monday, DSE reopens above 4,000Sunday, 28 June 2026DSE All-Share jumps 2.38% to 4,025 as cross-listed banks outpace the domestic tapeFriday, 26 June 2026Tanzania enters 2026/27 with a record budget and a 25-year horizonThursday, 25 June 2026Vision 2050 launch nears as DIRA planning instruments reach parliamentWednesday, 24 June 2026DIRA 2050 launches 1 July with a $47bn strategic-project spineTuesday, 23 June 2026TZS 62.33tn FY2026/27 budget takes effect 1 JulyMonday, 22 June 2026Samia to launch Vision (Dira) 2050 instruments on 29 JuneSunday, 21 June 2026