A daily reading of Tanzania’s markets, capital and policy, with regional and global forces when they materially change the read. Information and education, never advice.
The Brief is written the morning after the market closes. This edition analyses Friday, 7 August 2026; the most recent verified session. Its figures are frozen to that close; for today’s live moves see Markets.
Did the domestic market and the headline index move together or apart over the covered quarter?
Cumulative TSI return minus cumulative DSEI return · frozen at the 2026-08-07 covered session
Only declared transformations and compatible comparisons are enabled. The exact state is retained in the URL.
Reuse package · edition 2026-08-07-3aadf3beec27
| Date | Relationship | Cumulative gap (pp) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -0.27 |
| 2026-05-13 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -0.11 |
| 2026-05-14 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -0.39 |
| 2026-05-15 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -0.42 |
| 2026-05-18 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -0.3 |
| 2026-05-19 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -0.25 |
| 2026-05-20 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -0.13 |
| 2026-05-21 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | 0.15 |
| 2026-05-22 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | 0.18 |
| 2026-05-25 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | 0.72 |
| 2026-05-26 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | 0.89 |
| 2026-05-28 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | 1.19 |
| 2026-05-29 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | 1.09 |
| 2026-06-01 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | 1.2 |
| 2026-06-02 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | 1.54 |
| 2026-06-03 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | 1.3 |
| 2026-06-04 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | 1.4 |
| 2026-06-05 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | 1.59 |
| 2026-06-08 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | 1.43 |
| 2026-06-09 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | 1.14 |
| 2026-06-10 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | 0.76 |
| 2026-06-11 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | 0.56 |
| 2026-06-12 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | 0.24 |
| 2026-06-15 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -0.16 |
| 2026-06-16 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -0.01 |
| 2026-06-17 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -0.1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -0.59 |
| 2026-06-19 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -0.47 |
| 2026-06-22 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -0.09 |
| 2026-06-23 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -0.29 |
| 2026-06-24 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -0.4 |
| 2026-06-25 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -1.37 |
| 2026-06-26 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -1.93 |
| 2026-06-29 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -1.99 |
| 2026-06-30 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -1.72 |
| 2026-07-01 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -1.21 |
| 2026-07-03 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -0.9 |
| 2026-07-06 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -0.74 |
| 2026-07-08 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -0.97 |
| 2026-07-09 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -0.95 |
| 2026-07-10 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -0.95 |
| 2026-07-13 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -0.97 |
| 2026-07-14 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -1.16 |
| 2026-07-15 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -1 |
| 2026-07-16 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -1.2 |
| 2026-07-17 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -1.1 |
| 2026-07-20 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -1.06 |
| 2026-07-21 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -0.9 |
| 2026-07-22 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -0.81 |
| 2026-07-23 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -0.71 |
| 2026-07-24 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -1.82 |
| 2026-07-27 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -0.82 |
| 2026-07-28 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -0.42 |
| 2026-07-29 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -0.33 |
| 2026-07-30 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -0.35 |
| 2026-07-31 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -0.28 |
| 2026-08-03 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -0.37 |
| 2026-08-04 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -0.49 |
| 2026-08-05 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -0.7 |
| 2026-08-06 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | N/A |
| 2026-08-07 | Cumulative TSI minus DSEI | -1.04 |
2026-08-07-3aadf3beec27 · revision log →dse-daily-market-indicescumulative-excess-return; cumulative sum(TSI session return minus DSEI session return)Read: Above zero means the domestic index led. Below zero means the all-share led. A flat line near zero means their paths were similar.
Index scope differs. The measure adds only sessions with comparable published returns and is not a portfolio return. The excluded session remains disclosed in the values table.
Descriptive flags from the verified DSE close; not signals, predictions, or advice. The official close, fully broken down; After the Bell →
BoT’s 6 August curve spans six months to 25 years; 4,183.38 rose 0.14% while 9,169.71 fell 0.20% at the verified close.
The new benchmark clarifies sovereign pricing, but 88.5% of TZS 5.26bn equity turnover remained in NMB and CRDB.
Whether issuers and traders use the curve, and whether the next DSE session spreads value beyond the two banks.
The official fitted curve rises from 4.1894% at 0.5 years to 11.9854% at 25 years across 50 half-year points.
A published reference reduces pricing ambiguity; it does not prove secondary liquidity, issuance or the fitting method.
Next evidence: transparent trades or issuance using the curve; the next official curve run is not yet dated.
A free daily Tanzania market-intelligence note covering DSE moves, rates, FX, policy, macro signals and what to watch next.
4,183.38 rose 0.14% while 9,169.71 fell 0.20%; the two headline indices again moved in opposite directions.
All-share and domestic-only gauges gave different directions, so the named index still determines what the headline means.
The 10 August close tests whether the two indices reconverge and whether sector direction broadens.
NMB and CRDB supplied TZS 4.652bn, or 88.5%, of verified TZS 5.257bn turnover; 21 of 28 counters traded.
Advancers led decliners nine to seven, but traded value remained far narrower than the count of moving counters.
Whether the next verified session lowers the two-bank share while keeping at least 21 counters active.
June private-credit growth reached 28.1%, from 23.2% in May; headline inflation eased to 4.0% and core rose to 3.7%.
Credit transmission strengthened without a headline-inflation break, but sector allocation and durability remain unresolved.
The next official Monthly Economic Review tests persistence and whether credit growth broadens across productive sectors.
The Ghost’s hypothetical TZS 500m model ledger is +8.40% since inception at its 7 Aug mark. The official curve, split indices and concentrated turnover update the observable terrain; not trades.
Ghost relevance: how today’s rates, FX, gold and inflation read against a hypothetical model-book; educational, not advice.
Open the Ghost tracker → The terrain it reads →| When | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| after the 10 Aug session | DSE index direction and turnover distribution | The 7 August close split DSEI and TSI while NMB and CRDB supplied 88.5% of equity turnover. |
| next official trade or issuance evidence | Use of the official sovereign curve | The 6 August fitted curve adds a reference; adoption requires transparent pricing, issuance or secondary-market use. |
| next BoT dashboard observation | Next verified seven-day IBCM observation | The 7 August rate was 6.52%, 27 basis points above the 6.25% CBR; one observation does not establish persistence. |
| next BoT Monthly Economic Review · date not announced | Next official private-credit publication | June private-credit growth accelerated to 28.1%; the next report tests persistence and sector allocation. |
| next official release | Primary instruments behind weekend project reports | The Wire handoff carried secondary reports on allocations, financing intent and project backing without governing mechanics. |
A free daily Tanzania market-intelligence note covering DSE moves, rates, FX, policy, macro signals and what to watch next.
Compiled from public sources for information and education only; not investment advice, a forecast or a recommendation. Equity, index, breadth and turnover figures reconcile to the DSE verified close (7 Aug 2026). The sovereign curve, rates, FX, credit and inflation use separately dated Bank of Tanzania records: the curve is the official fitted run of 6 August, the seven-day IBCM observation is 7 August, the USD/TZS mean is from the 9 August sheet, and the macro observations cover June in the July 2026 Monthly Economic Review. The current Wire handoff was read first and contained zero primary-grade candidates; secondary reports on agricultural allocations, development-bank intent, transport announcements and energy-hub backing were not promoted without underlying official mechanics. The fitted curve is not blended with auction observations and its publication does not prove liquidity or adoption. No foreign-flow split, fitting method or same-day DSE close is inferred. Undated checkpoints remain explicitly undated. For live levels, see Markets.