USD / TZS 2,636364-day T-bill 7.03%BoT rate 6.25%Inflation 4.0% 16 Jul 2026 verified close
Tanzania Intelligence

The Brief

Vol. I · No. 198
Friday, 17 July 2026
Verified closeDSE · BoT · frozen to the covered session16 Jul 2026 verified close

A daily reading of Tanzania’s markets, capital and policy, with regional and global forces when they materially change the read. Information and education, never advice.

The Brief is written the morning after the market closes. This edition analyses Thursday, 16 July 2026; the most recent verified session. Its figures are frozen to that close; for today’s live moves see Markets.

DSE All-Share
4,102.94▲ 0.28%
DSEI · 16 Jul close · latest verified
Tanzania Share Index
8,940.29
TSI · 16 Jul · domestic
USD / TZS
2,636
BoT indicative mean · 16 Jul sheet
BoT rate
6.25%
CBR · Q3 2026
91-day T-bill
3.42%
BoT WAR · latest auction
364-day T-bill
6.47%
BoT WAR · latest auction
Inflation
4.0%
NBS · Jun 2026 headline
Today in 60 seconds
  1. CRDB supplies 93% of a TZS 55.20bn board while breadth turns negative
  2. The latest T-bill auction moves three of four tenors lower
  3. Same-date ETF gaps show why NAV publication clocks cannot be hidden
WatchT-bill auction No. 1204≈29 Jul 2026 · cadence-inferred, not an official BoT date
Read the full Brief ↓

Did the domestic market and the headline index move together or apart over the covered quarter?

The domestic market against the headline index

Cumulative TSI return minus cumulative DSEI return · frozen at the 2026-07-16 covered session

-0.94 ppCurrent spread+1.85 ppHighest spread-1.73 ppLowest spread
Coverage 2026-04-20 → 2026-07-16 Vintage 2026-07-16 · final Revision current · v0
The domestic market against the headline index. Exact values underlying the chart.
DateRelationshipCumulative gap (pp)
2026-04-20Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0
2026-04-21Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.14
2026-04-22Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.04
2026-04-23Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.05
2026-04-24Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.36
2026-04-27Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.43
2026-04-28Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.19
2026-04-29Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.43
2026-04-30Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.6
2026-05-04Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.37
2026-05-05Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.11
2026-05-06Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.17
2026-05-07Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.43
2026-05-08Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.21
2026-05-11Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.27
2026-05-12Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.01
2026-05-13Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.16
2026-05-14Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.12
2026-05-15Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.16
2026-05-18Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.03
2026-05-19Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.01
2026-05-20Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.13
2026-05-21Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.41
2026-05-22Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.45
2026-05-25Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.99
2026-05-26Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.16
2026-05-28Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.45
2026-05-29Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.36
2026-06-01Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.47
2026-06-02Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.81
2026-06-03Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.56
2026-06-04Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.67
2026-06-05Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.85
2026-06-08Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.69
2026-06-09Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.41
2026-06-10Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.02
2026-06-11Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.83
2026-06-12Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.5
2026-06-15Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.11
2026-06-16Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.26
2026-06-17Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.17
2026-06-18Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.33
2026-06-19Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.21
2026-06-22Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.18
2026-06-23Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.03
2026-06-24Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.13
2026-06-25Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-1.1
2026-06-26Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-1.67
2026-06-29Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-1.73
2026-06-30Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-1.45
2026-07-01Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.73
2026-07-02Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.94
2026-07-03Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.64
2026-07-06Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.47
2026-07-08Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.7
2026-07-09Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.69
2026-07-10Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.68
2026-07-13Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.7
2026-07-14Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.9
2026-07-15Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.73
2026-07-16Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.94

Read: Above zero means the domestic index led. Below zero means the all-share led. A flat line near zero means their paths were similar.

Index scope differs. The measure adds only sessions with comparable published returns and is not a portfolio return. The excluded session remains disclosed in the values table.

DSE Tape Check

Market breadth
Broad decline
7 rose, 12 fell
Advancers against decliners on the verified DSE close.
Turnover concentration
Block-driven
One name carried the tape
CRDB Bank was 93% of turnover; index moves overstate how broad the day really was.

Descriptive flags from the verified DSE close; not signals, predictions, or advice. The official close, fully broken down; After the Bell →

Verified close

CRDB supplies 93% of a TZS 55.20bn board while breadth turns negative

Signal

DSE turnover reached TZS 55.20bn on 16 Jul; CRDB supplied TZS 51.42bn, while 8 names rose, 12 fell and 8 were flat.

Why it matters

The index rose to 4,102.94 (+0.28%), but falling breadth and one-name concentration make turnover and breadth tell different stories.

What to watch

Whether the next verified close retains value beyond CRDB and whether advancers again outnumber decliners.

Source: Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange · Observed 16 Jul 2026
Go deeper →
Auction curve

The latest T-bill auction moves three of four tenors lower

Signal

At auction 1203, 35-, 91- and 364-day yields fell; only the 182-day rose, to 4.78% from 4.70%.

Why it matters

A non-parallel move means the curve carries more information than the 364-day headline alone.

What to watch

The next complete auction and whether short tenors keep easing while the 182-day remains firmer.

Source: Bank of Tanzania · Edition 17 Jul 2026 · Data verified · interpretation: Medium confidence
Go deeper →
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ETF vintages

Same-date ETF gaps show why NAV publication clocks cannot be hidden

Signal

IEACLC closed 1.0% above same-date NAV on 16 Jul; VERTEX's latest matched gap was 9.7% below NAV on 19 Jun.

Why it matters

One current and one historical match show why carrying an old NAV forward would create a false daily series.

What to watch

The next dated VERTEX NAV, the next verified closes and how the matched-gap distribution changes.

Source: Fund-manager NAV records and Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange closes · Edition 17 Jul 2026 · Data verified · interpretation: Medium confidence
Go deeper →
Currency

USD/TZS is almost unchanged on the latest BoT indicative sheet

Signal

The official mean was TZS 2,636.23 per dollar on 16 Jul, up 0.01% from TZS 2,635.89 on 15 Jul.

Why it matters

The level is stable day to day; the historical-band view tests context without turning that stability into a forecast.

What to watch

The next BoT observation and whether the level remains inside its recent observed range.

Source: Bank of Tanzania · Edition 17 Jul 2026 · Data verified · interpretation: Medium confidence
Go deeper →
Wire source gate

A reported credit slowdown stays a candidate until the BoT series confirms it

Signal

The fresh Wire handoff surfaced a Daily News report of slower private-credit growth; it contained no primary-source card.

Why it matters

Without the BoT aggregate and sector table, KCP cannot quantify the move or attach it to a reporting period.

What to watch

The next BoT credit series and CRDB/NMB results; until then this remains a candidate, not a verified fact.

Source: Daily News, surfaced by the KCP Wire handoff · Edition 17 Jul 2026 · Data as reported · interpretation: Medium confidence
Go deeper →
The Ghost

The model book

The Ghost's hypothetical TZS 500m model book is +4.26% since inception at the 16 Jul mark, with NMB Bank its largest equity allocation.

Ghost relevance: how today’s rates, FX, gold and inflation read against a hypothetical model-book; educational, not advice.

Open the Ghost tracker → The terrain it reads →
Week ahead; what to watch
WhenEventWhy it matters
≈29 Jul 2026 · cadence-inferred, not an official BoT dateT-bill auction No. 1204Whether the latest non-parallel curve move persists across short and long tenors
Manager publication scheduleNext dated VERTEX NAVA dated value restores a defensible same-date premium or discount comparison
Next monthly monetary publicationNext BoT private-sector credit releaseThe primary aggregate and sector table determine whether the Wire candidate becomes a verified story
Early Aug 2026NBS July CPI releaseWhether transport pressure changes the 4.0% headline and its published composition
After exchange publication and EOD reconciliationNext verified DSE closeWhether turnover broadens beyond CRDB and market breadth recovers
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Compiled from public sources for information and education only; not investment advice. Equity and index figures reconcile to the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange verified close (16 Jul 2026); rates and FX to the Bank of Tanzania; ETF NAVs to fund-manager records and closes to the DSE; inflation to the NBS. The Wire handoff contained no primary-source cards, so its reported credit item remains a candidate rather than a verified figure.

Archive; past editions59
Indices split, trading stayed concentratedWednesday, 16 September 2026Indices rose, trading stayed narrowTuesday, 15 September 2026Friday gains, concentrated tradingMonday, 14 September 2026Will trading value catch up with rising indices?Sunday, 13 September 2026Share indices rose as less money changed handsSaturday, 12 September 2026Both main indices rose as two banks carried most tradingFriday, 11 September 2026Both main indices rose as equity turnover fell by halfThursday, 10 September 2026The broad index fell while domestic shares edged higherWednesday, 9 September 2026Both main indices rose again, while two banks carried most trading valueTuesday, 8 September 2026Both main indices rose, but two banks still carried most trading valueMonday, 7 September 2026Index direction, trading breadth and Wednesday's bill auction set the next testsSunday, 6 September 2026The broad market rose while Tanzania-listed shares ended lowerSaturday, 5 September 2026CRDB supplied more than three quarters of Thursday's equity turnoverFriday, 4 September 2026Wednesday's DSE close combined a higher DSEI with a lower TSIThursday, 3 September 2026Tuesday's indices weakened while NMB carried most trading valueWednesday, 2 September 2026Monday eased while one bank carried most trading valueTuesday, 1 September 2026Friday rose, but one bank still carried most trading valueMonday, 31 August 2026Comparability, liquidity breadth and Wednesday's bond auction set the next evidence testsSunday, 30 August 2026Index returns stayed unavailable as Friday liquidity remained concentratedSaturday, 29 August 2026DSE index returns went unavailable as NMB carried 89.8% of turnoverFriday, 28 August 2026Mobile access widened as the verified tape strengthened and bill yields fellThursday, 27 August 2026Swissport’s cash conversion strengthened while DSE index returns remained unavailableWednesday, 26 August 2026The DSE scale changed while the underlying equity tape remained activeTuesday, 25 August 2026The DSE indices eased as CRDB carried most verified turnoverMonday, 24 August 2026A split index tape, lighter Friday liquidity and stable FX set up the next evidence testsSunday, 23 August 2026The All-Share rose, the domestic tape slipped and liquidity thinned into FridaySaturday, 22 August 2026DSEI edged up as CRDB led the verified turnover poolFriday, 21 August 2026DSEI rose as NMB carried 59.2% of turnoverThursday, 20 August 2026Friday's wider advance still depended on three counters for 84.7% of turnoverMonday, 17 August 2026NMB mechanics and a long-bond auction turn last week's gains into tests of market depthSunday, 16 August 2026Both indices rose, but five-session turnover still depended on a few namesSaturday, 15 August 2026Both headline indices accelerated; NMB still carried 66.1% of turnoverFriday, 14 August 2026Both headline indices advanced; NMB still carried 72.5% of turnoverThursday, 13 August 2026Both headline indices fell; two banks still carried 87.6% of turnoverWednesday, 12 August 2026Inflation rose to 4.2%; transport remained the pressure pointTuesday, 11 August 2026An official curve arrives; market depth is the testMonday, 10 August 2026A narrow equity tape meets a dated rates test while credit evidence awaits confirmationSunday, 9 August 2026The indices eased, two banks carried the money, and private credit acceleratedSaturday, 8 August 2026Private credit accelerated to 28.1% as the equity tape split againFriday, 7 August 2026DSEI rose, TSI fell as NMB carried 67.2% of turnoverThursday, 6 August 2026Breadth balanced, but CRDB and NMB still carried 73.0% of turnoverWednesday, 5 August 2026The indices barely moved; CRDB and NMB supplied 94.3% of turnoverTuesday, 4 August 2026TZS 30.46bn traded, but TBL carried nearly four shillings in fiveMonday, 3 August 2026Domestic strength enters a breadth test while the next policy and issuer evidence waits on the calendarSunday, 2 August 2026Domestic shares outran the headline index; but two concentrated sessions supplied most of the moneySaturday, 1 August 2026Indices rose, but two banks carried 84.1% of turnoverFriday, 31 July 2026Indices rose, but two banks carried 92.6% of turnoverThursday, 30 July 2026Every domestic index rose, but two banks carried almost nine shillings in tenWednesday, 29 July 2026Money returned, but four counters carried almost eighty-five per cent of the sessionTuesday, 28 July 2026The test week opens: a credit tailwind lands on the banks that sat still through the recordMonday, 27 July 2026A record made on three prints meets its first dated tests; the month-end auction and an FOMC weekSunday, 26 July 2026A record with an asterisk; the All-Share closes at an all-time high in a week more names fell than roseSaturday, 25 July 2026The rise broadens into industrials and services; but CRDB carries more than half the moneyFriday, 24 July 2026The give-back reverses on the heaviest tape in weeks; but three-quarters of it is one Breweries blockThursday, 23 July 2026A second thin give-back leaves the tape 25 points off the high; while the exchange's half-year numbers tell the opposite storyWednesday, 22 July 2026A thin Monday pause nine points under the record, as the rail story hardens from headlines into contractsTuesday, 21 July 2026Monday reopens off Friday's record-adjacent close, into a week with nothing dated on the calendarMonday, 20 July 2026A week with nothing dated on the market calendar; so the question turns to breadth, not dataSunday, 19 July 2026The DSE claws back its early-July dip; up 0.72% on three straight gains, back within a whisker of its recordSaturday, 18 July 2026