USD / TZS 2,634Gold · $/oz $4,111BoT rate 6.25%Inflation 4.2% 9 Jul 2026 verified close
Tanzania Intelligence

The Brief

Vol. I · No. 191
Friday, 10 July 2026
Verified closeDSE · BoT · frozen to the covered session9 Jul 2026 verified close

A daily reading of Tanzania’s markets, capital and policy, with regional and global forces when they materially change the read. Information and education, never advice.

The Brief is written the morning after the market closes. This edition analyses Thursday, 9 July 2026; the most recent verified session. Its figures are frozen to that close; for today’s live moves see Markets.

DSE All-Share
4,089.24▼ 0.31%
DSEI · 9 Jul close · latest verified
Tanzania Share Index
8,932.56
TSI · 9 Jul · domestic
USD / TZS
2,634
BoT mean · 10 Jul sheet · −7.4% YTD
Gold · $/oz
$4,111
BoT ref · 10 Jul mark ≈TZS 10.83m/oz
BoT rate
6.25%
CBR · Q3 2026
91-day T-bill
3.40%
BoT WAR · latest auction
364-day T-bill
6.65%
BoT WAR · latest auction
Inflation
4.2%
NBS · May 2026 headline
Today in 60 seconds
  1. The DSE eases in its first full session back as a mild foreign net-selling tilt meets thin breadth
  2. Vision 2050 launches in Dodoma on 17 July; the financing vehicles, LNG-Lindi foremost, are the market's real question
  3. The front end waits on auction No. 1203: 91-day bills at 3.45% still sit ~280bp below the 6.25% CBR
WatchJune CPI print~mid-Jul 2026
Read the full Brief ↓
Market mood

Cautious and bank-led. The headline eased 0.31% to 4,089.24 in the first full session back, on thin breadth and a mild foreign net-selling tilt; one session, not a trend. Rates are in a holding pattern until auction No. 1203 shows whether the front end follows the 6.25% CBR or stays pinned ~280bp below, and policy attention now turns to the 17 July Vision 2050 launch, where the financing vehicles; not the targets; are the market's real question.

EquitiesSoft and bank-led; breadth thin, a mild foreign net-selling tilt.
RatesHolding until auction No. 1203 tests policy pass-through into the front end.
FX / GoldShilling −7.4% YTD; ~28t of BoT gold reserves a supporting factor.
PolicyVision 2050 (17 Jul); named financing vehicles the open question.
RiskPolitical calm post-Saba Saba; execution is the watch, not the headline.
Educational reading of the day · not advice
What this means today
New Tanzanian investorOne soft session isn't a trend; breadth (how many names rose vs fell) and turnover show how broad a day really was, not just the index level.
Diaspora investorThe shilling is −7.4% YTD, so a local TZS move and a hard-currency return can diverge; USD/TZS is part of the real-return picture, not just a macro line.
Institutional readerThe cleanest reads this week are auction No. 1203 (policy pass-through) and whether bank breadth on CRDB and NMB reasserts at normal turnover.
Foreign investorTanzania's policy pipeline is investable in principle, but the 17 July Vision 2050 launch turns on named financing vehicles and co-investors; execution detail, not the headline target.
Educational interpretation by reader type · not personalised advice.

Did the domestic market and the headline index move together or apart over the covered quarter?

The domestic market against the headline index

Cumulative TSI return minus cumulative DSEI return · frozen at the 2026-07-09 covered session

-0.98 ppCurrent spread+1.56 ppHighest spread-2.02 ppLowest spread
Coverage 2026-04-13 → 2026-07-09 Vintage 2026-07-09 · final Revision current · v0
The domestic market against the headline index. Exact values underlying the chart.
DateRelationshipCumulative gap (pp)
2026-04-13Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0
2026-04-14Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.02
2026-04-15Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.14
2026-04-16Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.11
2026-04-17Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.3
2026-04-20Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.29
2026-04-21Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.15
2026-04-22Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.25
2026-04-23Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.24
2026-04-24Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.65
2026-04-27Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.71
2026-04-28Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.48
2026-04-29Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.14
2026-04-30Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.31
2026-05-04Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.08
2026-05-05Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.18
2026-05-06Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.46
2026-05-07Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.72
2026-05-08Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.5
2026-05-11Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.02
2026-05-12Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.3
2026-05-13Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.13
2026-05-14Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.41
2026-05-15Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.44
2026-05-18Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.32
2026-05-19Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.28
2026-05-20Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.15
2026-05-21Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.12
2026-05-22Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.16
2026-05-25Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.7
2026-05-26Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.87
2026-05-28Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.16
2026-05-29Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.07
2026-06-01Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.18
2026-06-02Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.52
2026-06-03Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.27
2026-06-04Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.38
2026-06-05Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.56
2026-06-08Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.4
2026-06-09Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.12
2026-06-10Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.73
2026-06-11Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.54
2026-06-12Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.21
2026-06-15Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.18
2026-06-16Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.03
2026-06-17Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.12
2026-06-18Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.62
2026-06-19Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.49
2026-06-22Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.11
2026-06-23Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.32
2026-06-24Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.42
2026-06-25Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-1.39
2026-06-26Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-1.95
2026-06-29Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-2.02
2026-06-30Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-1.74
2026-07-01Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-1.02
2026-07-02Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-1.23
2026-07-03Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.93
2026-07-06Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.76
2026-07-08Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.99
2026-07-09Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.98

Read: Above zero means the domestic index led. Below zero means the all-share led. A flat line near zero means their paths were similar.

Index scope differs. The measure adds only sessions with comparable published returns and is not a portfolio return. The excluded session remains disclosed in the values table.

Markets

The DSE eases in its first full session back as a mild foreign net-selling tilt meets thin breadth

Signal

The post-Saba Saba tape eased to 4,089.24 (9 Jul 2026, −0.31%); locals were ~90% of buying as foreigners tilted to net sellers on TZS 6.72bn turnover.

Why it matters

One session isn't a trend, but it's the first read on whether the Week-27 bank-led rally (CRDB, NMB) cooled once the holiday pause lifted and turnover normalised.

What to watch

Whether the mild foreign net-selling extends next week and whether bank breadth on CRDB and NMB reasserts at normal turnover.

Source: DSE · Edition 10 Jul 2026
Go deeper →
Political Risk

Vision 2050 launches in Dodoma on 17 July; the financing vehicles, LNG-Lindi foremost, are the market's real question

Signal

Dira 2050; a $1tn-economy, $7,000-per-capita, private-sector-led plan across nine sectors; launches 17 Jul; the first five-year tranche is funded at TZS 12.50tn.

Why it matters

With donor grants set to fall ~39%, the $1tn path leans on mobilising private and external capital; the government is courting French and other investors ahead of the launch.

What to watch

Which flagship projects get named financing vehicles and co-investors, and any investment MoUs signed around 17 Jul.

Source: Open-source reporting · Edition 10 Jul 2026 · Data open-source · interpretation: Medium confidence
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Rates

The front end waits on auction No. 1203: 91-day bills at 3.45% still sit ~280bp below the 6.25% CBR

Signal

Auction No. 1202 (2 Jul) remains the latest on the BoT register at 10 Jul; 91-day WAR 3.4549%, 364-day 7.1175%; No. 1203 is due ~16 Jul.

Why it matters

No. 1203 is the first real test of policy pass-through; whether bill yields follow the CBR higher or demand keeps the front end pinned.

What to watch

The 91-day WAR at No. 1203 and whether the 364-day holds above 7%.

Source: Bank of Tanzania · Edition 10 Jul 2026 · Data verified · interpretation: Medium confidence
Commodities

Bank of Tanzania has built ~28 tonnes of gold reserves as bullion holds near $4,111/oz

Signal

Governor Tutuba says the BoT bought ~28 tonnes of gold (~$3.68bn) over 18 months; total reserves ~$6bn, ~4.3 months of import cover, with 4,000+ traders formalised.

Why it matters

Domestic gold-buying diversifies reserves away from FX and can support the shilling, while formalising local exports widens the tax base.

What to watch

Whether reserve cover holds near 4+ months as the import bill runs, and the pace of gold-export formalisation.

Source: Bank of Tanzania · Edition 10 Jul 2026 · Data verified · interpretation: Medium confidence
Macro

June CPI, due mid-July, is the first band test after the fuel-subsidy exit and the 50bp hike

Signal

June CPI is the first test of the 3 to 5% band after the fuel-subsidy exit and the 2 Jul 50bp CBR hike; May headline held at 4.2% (Apr 4.0%).

Why it matters

Transport ran +11.9% y/y and diesel +13.8% in the May basket; June is where the fuel pass-through shows up in the headline.

What to watch

The June CPI band test, then T-bill auction No. 1203 around 16 Jul.

Source: Open-source reporting · Edition 10 Jul 2026 · Data open-source · interpretation: Medium confidence
The Ghost

The model book

The Ghost's hypothetical TZS 500m book is +4.12% since inception, with NMB Bank its largest equity position.

Ghost relevance: The model-book's largest allocation is a bank (NMB), so today's thin, bank-led tape and the next T-bill auction both read through to the terrain: bank strength supports the equity sleeve, while a higher front end would raise the hurdle rate for taking equity risk; educational, not advice.

Open the Ghost tracker → The terrain it reads →
Week ahead; what to watch
WhenEventWhy it matters
~mid-Jul 2026June CPI printFirst inflation-band test after the fuel-subsidy exit and the 2 Jul 50bp hike.
next weekDSE foreign-flow follow-throughWhether the mild foreign net-selling tilt extends or reverses.
~16 Jul 2026BoT T-bill auction No. 1203First real test of policy pass-through into the front end.
17 Jul 2026Vision 2050 formal launch, DodomaNamed financing vehicles and co-investors are the market signal.
Get the Daily Brief before the market opens.

A free daily Tanzania market-intelligence note covering DSE moves, rates, FX, policy, macro signals and what to watch next.

Information and education only. No advice. No noise. Unsubscribe anytime.

Compiled from open-source reporting for information and education only; not investment advice. Equity and index figures reconcile to the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange verified close (9 Jul 2026); rates, FX and gold to the Bank of Tanzania. Figures are as reported and require refresh against official data.

Archive; past editions59
The broad index fell while domestic shares edged higherWednesday, 9 September 2026Both main indices rose again, while two banks carried most trading valueTuesday, 8 September 2026Both main indices rose, but two banks still carried most trading valueMonday, 7 September 2026Index direction, trading breadth and Wednesday's bill auction set the next testsSunday, 6 September 2026The broad market rose while Tanzania-listed shares ended lowerSaturday, 5 September 2026CRDB supplied more than three quarters of Thursday's equity turnoverFriday, 4 September 2026Wednesday's DSE close combined a higher DSEI with a lower TSIThursday, 3 September 2026Tuesday's indices weakened while NMB carried most trading valueWednesday, 2 September 2026Monday eased while one bank carried most trading valueTuesday, 1 September 2026Friday rose, but one bank still carried most trading valueMonday, 31 August 2026Comparability, liquidity breadth and Wednesday's bond auction set the next evidence testsSunday, 30 August 2026Index returns stayed unavailable as Friday liquidity remained concentratedSaturday, 29 August 2026DSE index returns went unavailable as NMB carried 89.8% of turnoverFriday, 28 August 2026Mobile access widened as the verified tape strengthened and bill yields fellThursday, 27 August 2026Swissport’s cash conversion strengthened while DSE index returns remained unavailableWednesday, 26 August 2026The DSE scale changed while the underlying equity tape remained activeTuesday, 25 August 2026The DSE indices eased as CRDB carried most verified turnoverMonday, 24 August 2026A split index tape, lighter Friday liquidity and stable FX set up the next evidence testsSunday, 23 August 2026The All-Share rose, the domestic tape slipped and liquidity thinned into FridaySaturday, 22 August 2026DSEI edged up as CRDB led the verified turnover poolFriday, 21 August 2026DSEI rose as NMB carried 59.2% of turnoverThursday, 20 August 2026Friday's wider advance still depended on three counters for 84.7% of turnoverMonday, 17 August 2026NMB mechanics and a long-bond auction turn last week's gains into tests of market depthSunday, 16 August 2026Both indices rose, but five-session turnover still depended on a few namesSaturday, 15 August 2026Both headline indices accelerated; NMB still carried 66.1% of turnoverFriday, 14 August 2026Both headline indices advanced; NMB still carried 72.5% of turnoverThursday, 13 August 2026Both headline indices fell; two banks still carried 87.6% of turnoverWednesday, 12 August 2026Inflation rose to 4.2%; transport remained the pressure pointTuesday, 11 August 2026An official curve arrives; market depth is the testMonday, 10 August 2026A narrow equity tape meets a dated rates test while credit evidence awaits confirmationSunday, 9 August 2026The indices eased, two banks carried the money, and private credit acceleratedSaturday, 8 August 2026Private credit accelerated to 28.1% as the equity tape split againFriday, 7 August 2026DSEI rose, TSI fell as NMB carried 67.2% of turnoverThursday, 6 August 2026Breadth balanced, but CRDB and NMB still carried 73.0% of turnoverWednesday, 5 August 2026The indices barely moved; CRDB and NMB supplied 94.3% of turnoverTuesday, 4 August 2026TZS 30.46bn traded, but TBL carried nearly four shillings in fiveMonday, 3 August 2026Domestic strength enters a breadth test while the next policy and issuer evidence waits on the calendarSunday, 2 August 2026Domestic shares outran the headline index; but two concentrated sessions supplied most of the moneySaturday, 1 August 2026Indices rose, but two banks carried 84.1% of turnoverFriday, 31 July 2026Indices rose, but two banks carried 92.6% of turnoverThursday, 30 July 2026Every domestic index rose, but two banks carried almost nine shillings in tenWednesday, 29 July 2026Money returned, but four counters carried almost eighty-five per cent of the sessionTuesday, 28 July 2026The test week opens: a credit tailwind lands on the banks that sat still through the recordMonday, 27 July 2026A record made on three prints meets its first dated tests; the month-end auction and an FOMC weekSunday, 26 July 2026A record with an asterisk; the All-Share closes at an all-time high in a week more names fell than roseSaturday, 25 July 2026The rise broadens into industrials and services; but CRDB carries more than half the moneyFriday, 24 July 2026The give-back reverses on the heaviest tape in weeks; but three-quarters of it is one Breweries blockThursday, 23 July 2026A second thin give-back leaves the tape 25 points off the high; while the exchange's half-year numbers tell the opposite storyWednesday, 22 July 2026A thin Monday pause nine points under the record, as the rail story hardens from headlines into contractsTuesday, 21 July 2026Monday reopens off Friday's record-adjacent close, into a week with nothing dated on the calendarMonday, 20 July 2026A week with nothing dated on the market calendar; so the question turns to breadth, not dataSunday, 19 July 2026The DSE claws back its early-July dip; up 0.72% on three straight gains, back within a whisker of its recordSaturday, 18 July 2026CRDB supplies 93% of a TZS 55.20bn board while breadth turns negativeFriday, 17 July 2026The crossing did not repeat; turnover falls 28x to TZS 2.71bn and the All-Share gains for the first time in seven sessionsThursday, 16 July 2026CRDB alone was 97% of Tuesday's board; TZS 73.4bn on 27.2m shares as the All-Share eased a sixth sessionWednesday, 15 July 2026Inflation eases to 4.0% in June; the first read after the fuel-subsidy exit and the 50bp hike passes the band testTuesday, 14 July 2026The DSE reopens at 4,082.43 with four declines behind it and the week's two dated events aheadMonday, 13 July 2026Two dated events, one question: what the hurdle rate is, and who pays for the ambitionSunday, 12 July 2026Four sessions, four declines: the DSE gives back a little of its record, and one CRDB crossing carries the tapeSaturday, 11 July 2026