KCP. USD/TZS 2,638
USD / TZS 2,630Gold · $/oz $4,168BoT rate 6.25%Inflation 4.2% 3 Jul 2026 verified close
Tanzania Intelligence

The Brief

Vol. I · No. 187
Monday, 6 July 2026
Verified closeDSE · BoT · frozen to the covered session3 Jul 2026 verified close

A daily reading of Tanzania’s markets, capital and policy, with regional and global forces when they materially change the read. Information and education, never advice.

The Brief is written the morning after the market closes. This edition analyses Friday, 3 July 2026; the most recent verified session. Its figures are frozen to that close; for today’s live moves see Markets.

DSE All-Share
4,116.73▲ 0.65%
DSEI · 3 Jul close · record · Mon session underway
Tanzania Share Index
8,997.09
TSI · 3 Jul · domestic
USD / TZS
2,630
BoT mean · 5 Jul · −6.1% YTD
Gold · $/oz
$4,168
5 Jul BoT ref · up from $4,054
BoT rate
6.25%
CBR · Q3 2026
91-day T-bill
3.40%
BoT WAR · latest auction
364-day T-bill
6.65%
BoT WAR · latest auction
Inflation
4.2%
May · range top
Today in 60 seconds
  1. Saba Saba eve: rally ban enforced with deployments across Dar as the TPDF warns off protest calls
  2. Record tape meets the new rate: DSE reopens from 4,116.73 for its first session under the 6.25% CBR
  3. BoT's 5 July sheet: the shilling drifts to 2,630 as the official gold reference jumps to about $4,168
WatchSaba Saba commemoration7 Jul 2026
Read the full Brief ↓

Did the domestic market and the headline index move together or apart over the covered quarter?

The domestic market against the headline index

Cumulative TSI return minus cumulative DSEI return · frozen at the 2026-07-03 covered session

-0.48 ppLatest comparable-session gap
Coverage 2026-04-08 → 2026-07-03 Vintage 2026-07-03 · final Revision current · v0
The domestic market against the headline index. Exact values underlying the chart.
DateRelationshipCumulative gap (pp)
2026-04-08Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0
2026-04-09Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.13
2026-04-10Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.58
2026-04-13Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.54
2026-04-14Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.52
2026-04-15Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.39
2026-04-16Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.42
2026-04-17Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.22
2026-04-20Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.23
2026-04-21Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.37
2026-04-22Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.27
2026-04-23Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.28
2026-04-24Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.13
2026-04-27Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.2
2026-04-28Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.03
2026-04-29Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.66
2026-04-30Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.83
2026-05-04Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.59
2026-05-05Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.32
2026-05-06Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.04
2026-05-07Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.22
2026-05-08Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.01
2026-05-11Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.46
2026-05-12Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.19
2026-05-13Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.36
2026-05-14Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.07
2026-05-15Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.04
2026-05-18Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.16
2026-05-19Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.21
2026-05-20Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.33
2026-05-21Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.61
2026-05-22Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.65
2026-05-25Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.2
2026-05-26Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.38
2026-05-28Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.68
2026-05-29Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.59
2026-06-01Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.7
2026-06-02Cumulative TSI minus DSEI2.06
2026-06-03Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.8
2026-06-04Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.91
2026-06-05Cumulative TSI minus DSEI2.09
2026-06-08Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.93
2026-06-09Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.63
2026-06-10Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.23
2026-06-11Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.02
2026-06-12Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.69
2026-06-15Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.28
2026-06-16Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.44
2026-06-17Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.35
2026-06-18Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.16
2026-06-19Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.03
2026-06-22Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.36
2026-06-23Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.15
2026-06-24Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.05
2026-06-25Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.94
2026-06-26Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-1.53
2026-06-29Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-1.59
2026-06-30Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-1.32
2026-07-01Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.57
2026-07-02Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.8
2026-07-03Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.48

Read: A rising line means the domestic index led. A falling line means the all-share led. A flat line near zero means their paths were similar.

Index scope differs. The measure compounds only sessions with comparable published changes and is not a portfolio return.

Political Risk

Saba Saba eve: rally ban enforced with deployments across Dar as the TPDF warns off protest calls

Signal

On Saba Saba eve, the TPDF warned against social-media protest calls and the rally ban is being enforced with deployments across Dar.

Why it matters

It is the sharpest domestic political test since the election; a quiet 7 Jul clears the runway to the 17 Jul Vision 2050 launch in Dodoma.

What to watch

The security posture and official tone through 7 July, and whether the DSE's record tape trades through the date undisturbed.

Source: Open-source reporting · Edition 6 Jul 2026 · Data open-source · interpretation: Medium confidence
Markets

Record tape meets the new rate: DSE reopens from 4,116.73 for its first session under the 6.25% CBR

Signal

The board reopened Monday from Friday's third straight record close (DSEI 4,116.73), the first session priced under the 6.25% CBR.

Why it matters

A 50bp hike shifts the discount math under a market at all-time highs; how the banks trade in the new corridor is the immediate read.

What to watch

Monday's close and banking-name breadth; CRDB and NMB; once the DSE publishes the session.

Source: DSE · Edition 6 Jul 2026 · Data verified · interpretation: Medium confidence
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FX & Gold

BoT's 5 July sheet: the shilling drifts to 2,630 as the official gold reference jumps to about $4,168

Signal

BoT's 5 Jul indicative sheet put USD/TZS at a 2,630.04 mean, from 2,625.66 on 2 Jul, with the gold reference up at ≈$4,168/oz.

Why it matters

Record bullion underwrites reserves (≈$6bn, 4.3 months of imports) and export earnings while the shilling stays −6.1% YTD firm.

What to watch

Whether the gold reference holds above $4,100 and the shilling's drift stays inside its 30-day band.

Source: Bank of Tanzania · Edition 6 Jul 2026 · Data verified · interpretation: Medium confidence
Go deeper →
Fiscal

TRA books TZS 30.18tn for July to March, 5.9% above estimate, as enforcement lifts income tax

Signal

TRA collected TZS 30,182.8bn over Jul 2025 to Mar 2026 against a TZS 28,499.5bn estimate (+5.9%); March income tax beat target by 17.2%.

Why it matters

Revenue outperformance is the credibility base under the TZS 62.33tn FY2026/27 budget, now in its first full week of legal execution.

What to watch

Q4 collections and whether the ≈TZS 100bn/month arrears earmark is honoured from July.

Source: Open-source reporting · Edition 6 Jul 2026 · Data open-source · interpretation: Medium confidence
Trade

DITF runs with 23-plus countries as Vision 2050's commercial week opens ahead of the Dodoma launch

Signal

The Sabasaba trade fair is running with 23+ countries exhibiting, with Vision 2050 in legal effect ahead of its 17 Jul formal launch.

Why it matters

The fair is the commercial face of the week; which of ≈TZS 120tn anchor projects get financing vehicles named on 17 Jul is the market question.

What to watch

Podium specifics on 17 Jul; financing vehicles for LNG, Liganga-Mchuchuma, Kabanga and Engaruka.

Source: Open-source reporting · Edition 6 Jul 2026 · Data open-source · interpretation: Medium confidence
The Ghost

The model book

The Ghost's hypothetical TZS 500m book is +4.26% since inception, with NMB Bank its largest equity position.

Ghost relevance: how today’s rates, FX, gold and inflation read against a hypothetical model-book; educational, not advice.

Open the Ghost tracker → The terrain it reads →
Week ahead; what to watch
WhenEventWhy it matters
7 Jul 2026Saba Saba commemoration
~mid-Jul 2026BoT T-bill auction No. 1203
~mid-Jul 2026June CPI print
17 Jul 2026Vision 2050 formal launch, Dodoma
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Compiled from open-source reporting for information and education only; not investment advice. Equity and index figures reconcile to the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange verified close (3 Jul 2026); rates, FX and gold to the Bank of Tanzania. Figures are as reported and require refresh against official data.

Archive; past editions59
The broad market rose while Tanzania-listed shares ended lowerSaturday, 5 September 2026CRDB supplied more than three quarters of Thursday's equity turnoverFriday, 4 September 2026Wednesday's DSE close combined a higher DSEI with a lower TSIThursday, 3 September 2026Tuesday's indices weakened while NMB carried most trading valueWednesday, 2 September 2026Monday eased while one bank carried most trading valueTuesday, 1 September 2026Friday rose, but one bank still carried most trading valueMonday, 31 August 2026Comparability, liquidity breadth and Wednesday's bond auction set the next evidence testsSunday, 30 August 2026Index returns stayed unavailable as Friday liquidity remained concentratedSaturday, 29 August 2026DSE index returns went unavailable as NMB carried 89.8% of turnoverFriday, 28 August 2026Mobile access widened as the verified tape strengthened and bill yields fellThursday, 27 August 2026Swissport’s cash conversion strengthened while DSE index returns remained unavailableWednesday, 26 August 2026The DSE scale changed while the underlying equity tape remained activeTuesday, 25 August 2026The DSE indices eased as CRDB carried most verified turnoverMonday, 24 August 2026A split index tape, lighter Friday liquidity and stable FX set up the next evidence testsSunday, 23 August 2026The All-Share rose, the domestic tape slipped and liquidity thinned into FridaySaturday, 22 August 2026DSEI edged up as CRDB led the verified turnover poolFriday, 21 August 2026DSEI rose as NMB carried 59.2% of turnoverThursday, 20 August 2026Friday's wider advance still depended on three counters for 84.7% of turnoverMonday, 17 August 2026NMB mechanics and a long-bond auction turn last week's gains into tests of market depthSunday, 16 August 2026Both indices rose, but five-session turnover still depended on a few namesSaturday, 15 August 2026Both headline indices accelerated; NMB still carried 66.1% of turnoverFriday, 14 August 2026Both headline indices advanced; NMB still carried 72.5% of turnoverThursday, 13 August 2026Both headline indices fell; two banks still carried 87.6% of turnoverWednesday, 12 August 2026Inflation rose to 4.2%; transport remained the pressure pointTuesday, 11 August 2026An official curve arrives; market depth is the testMonday, 10 August 2026A narrow equity tape meets a dated rates test while credit evidence awaits confirmationSunday, 9 August 2026The indices eased, two banks carried the money, and private credit acceleratedSaturday, 8 August 2026Private credit accelerated to 28.1% as the equity tape split againFriday, 7 August 2026DSEI rose, TSI fell as NMB carried 67.2% of turnoverThursday, 6 August 2026Breadth balanced, but CRDB and NMB still carried 73.0% of turnoverWednesday, 5 August 2026The indices barely moved; CRDB and NMB supplied 94.3% of turnoverTuesday, 4 August 2026TZS 30.46bn traded, but TBL carried nearly four shillings in fiveMonday, 3 August 2026Domestic strength enters a breadth test while the next policy and issuer evidence waits on the calendarSunday, 2 August 2026Domestic shares outran the headline index; but two concentrated sessions supplied most of the moneySaturday, 1 August 2026Indices rose, but two banks carried 84.1% of turnoverFriday, 31 July 2026Indices rose, but two banks carried 92.6% of turnoverThursday, 30 July 2026Every domestic index rose, but two banks carried almost nine shillings in tenWednesday, 29 July 2026Money returned, but four counters carried almost eighty-five per cent of the sessionTuesday, 28 July 2026The test week opens: a credit tailwind lands on the banks that sat still through the recordMonday, 27 July 2026A record made on three prints meets its first dated tests; the month-end auction and an FOMC weekSunday, 26 July 2026A record with an asterisk; the All-Share closes at an all-time high in a week more names fell than roseSaturday, 25 July 2026The rise broadens into industrials and services; but CRDB carries more than half the moneyFriday, 24 July 2026The give-back reverses on the heaviest tape in weeks; but three-quarters of it is one Breweries blockThursday, 23 July 2026A second thin give-back leaves the tape 25 points off the high; while the exchange's half-year numbers tell the opposite storyWednesday, 22 July 2026A thin Monday pause nine points under the record, as the rail story hardens from headlines into contractsTuesday, 21 July 2026Monday reopens off Friday's record-adjacent close, into a week with nothing dated on the calendarMonday, 20 July 2026A week with nothing dated on the market calendar; so the question turns to breadth, not dataSunday, 19 July 2026The DSE claws back its early-July dip; up 0.72% on three straight gains, back within a whisker of its recordSaturday, 18 July 2026CRDB supplies 93% of a TZS 55.20bn board while breadth turns negativeFriday, 17 July 2026The crossing did not repeat; turnover falls 28x to TZS 2.71bn and the All-Share gains for the first time in seven sessionsThursday, 16 July 2026CRDB alone was 97% of Tuesday's board; TZS 73.4bn on 27.2m shares as the All-Share eased a sixth sessionWednesday, 15 July 2026Inflation eases to 4.0% in June; the first read after the fuel-subsidy exit and the 50bp hike passes the band testTuesday, 14 July 2026The DSE reopens at 4,082.43 with four declines behind it and the week's two dated events aheadMonday, 13 July 2026Two dated events, one question: what the hurdle rate is, and who pays for the ambitionSunday, 12 July 2026Four sessions, four declines: the DSE gives back a little of its record, and one CRDB crossing carries the tapeSaturday, 11 July 2026The DSE eases in its first full session back as a mild foreign net-selling tilt meets thin breadthFriday, 10 July 2026Saba Saba reframed as a managed trade showcase as the runway to the 17 July Vision 2050 launch clearsThursday, 9 July 2026Saba Saba passes as a shutdown, not a clash: Kariakoo deserted under heavy security as the market reopensWednesday, 8 July 2026Saba Saba day: DSE closed and security deployed across Dar, with a quiet commemoration the base caseTuesday, 7 July 2026