Verified closeDSE · BoT · frozen to the covered session31 Jul 2026 verified close
A daily reading of Tanzania’s markets, capital and policy, with regional and global forces when they materially change the read. Information and education, never advice.
Week ahead; frozen at Sunday’s publication, framing the week to come off the 31 Jul 2026 verified close (the last verified session). Its figures are frozen to that close; for today’s live moves see Markets.
Weekly market scoreboard
2026-07-31 close · change ON THE WEEK · DSE · BoT · NBS
DSE All-Share
4,190.41
▲ +0.97%
DSEI · 31 Jul close · latest verified
Tanzania Share Index
9,215.18
▲ +2.53%
TSI · 31 Jul close · domestic board
USD / TZS
2,649.75
▲ +0.47%
BoT mean · hard-currency lens
BoT rate
6.25%
policy
CBR · policy anchor
91-day T-bill
3.44%
▼ -10bp
BoT WAR · vs prior auction
364-day T-bill
6.74%
▼ -9bp
BoT WAR · vs prior auction
Inflation
4.0%
latest print
NBS · monthly
The read: the Friday close, with the move across the whole week beside it; not the one-session change the daily Brief shows. The implication: the index level alone never says whether the week was broad or carried by a couple of names; breadth and turnover do.
DSE weekly tape check
DSE · 5 verified sessions to 2026-07-31
Sessions
5
verified DSE closes
Weekly turnover
TZS 64.5bn
sum of the week's value traded
Breadth
0 up / 0 down
0 unchanged · counters that moved across the week
Best session
+0.52%
2026-07-28
Worst session
-0.20%
2026-07-27
Peak concentration
79%
NMB carried 2026-07-29
Concentration by session; the top name’s share of each session’s turnover
2026-07-27 · NMB
28%
2026-07-28 · NMB
69%
2026-07-29 · NMB
79%
2026-07-30 · NMB
64%
2026-07-31 · TBL
78%
What the index hid: highly concentrated; the single heaviest name took 79% of one session’s turnover. A week can look active and still be carried by one counter. Each close, fully broken down; After the Bell →
The hurdle rate
Bank of Tanzania · WARs as at 2026-08-12
CBR · policy anchor
6.25%
91-day WAR · the front end
3.44%
182-day WAR
5.18%
364-day WAR · income anchor
6.74%
How to read this: short government paper is the opportunity cost of taking equity risk. Why it matters: the higher the front end sits, the more dividends, earnings growth and liquidity equities must deliver to clear it. Educational; not advice.
The transmission chain
How a weaker shilling reaches the shopping basket
The shilling
USD/TZS 2,645
▲ +0.47%
2026-08-17 · Bank of Tanzania
→
Fuel cap
Diesel TZS 3,978/l
▼ -4.88%
2026-08 · EWURA · monthly cap
→
Food
Maize TZS 77,750/t
flat
2026-07-31 · Wholesale · MIT
→
Cost of living
CPI 4.0%
latest print
June 2026 headline · NBS · monthly
How to read this: each link carries its own authority and its own lag; FX moves daily, fuel caps monthly, food weekly, CPI monthly. Why it matters: this is the chain that turns a currency move into a cost-of-living move. Descriptive, not predictive; the links are shown, not forecast.
KANZA CAPITAL PARTNERSThe Weekly Brief
The DSE week to 31 Jul
DSEI +0.97% · TSI +2.53% · USD/TZS +0.47% on the week
Read: Headline and domestic agreed, the shilling gave ground.
Weekly moves computed from verified closes · 2026-07-31kanzacapitalpartners.com · education, not advice
The week card; built to be screenshotted and shared. Every figure is computed from the verified record.
The week in 90 seconds
Domestic strength enters a breadth test while the next policy and issuer evidence waits on the calendar
Breadth is the first test of last week's domestic outperformance
TZS 64.53bn sets the liquidity baseline; distribution is the next test
WatchDSE breadth and turnover distributionweek of 3 Aug 2026
Citation and sharing permitted; observation download remains source-restricted.
Read: The rebased paths show the part of the domestic move that the broader headline index does; and does not; capture.
Index scope differs. Neither line is the return of every constituent or of a reader’s portfolio.
The week ahead
Domestic strength enters a breadth test while the next policy and issuer evidence waits on the calendar
Signal
The market reopens Monday off 4,190.41 after 9,215.18 gained 2.53% Friday-to-Friday; five verified sessions carried TZS 64.53bn of equity turnover.
Why it matters
The domestic advance was established but concentrated: Commercial Services rose 19.91%, Monday and Friday supplied 69.5% of weekly turnover, and Friday alone was 78.1% TBL. NMB and Vodacom added issuer evidence, but their next questions are funding costs and cash conversion rather than price direction.
What to watch
Whether ordinary two-sided turnover broadens the index move; whether the next official BoT and NBS releases change the rates and inflation baselines; and how the tape develops before NMB's verified 19 to 24 August subdivision sequence.
Breadth is the first test of last week's domestic outperformance
Signal
4,190.41 added 0.97% Friday-to-Friday and 9,215.18 2.53%; Commercial Services rose 19.91%, Industrial & Allied 1.70% and Banks 0.72%.
Why it matters
The sector gains were real, but five sessions produced more declining than advancing counts. A stronger index and narrow participation can coexist.
What to watch
The next verified closes test whether more domestic counters participate at ordinary two-sided turnover, rather than whether any one index level is retained.
Source: DSE · Edition 2 Aug 2026 · Data verified · interpretation: Medium confidence
A sourced review of the full Tanzania market week: the DSE tape and who actually carried it, rates, FX, policy, macro, companies; and what to watch next. Prefer the weekend digest to a daily note? Choose weekly only.
Choose Daily, Weekly, or both; they are separate subscriptions. Information and education only. No advice. No noise. Unsubscribe anytime.
Tape
TZS 64.53bn sets the liquidity baseline; distribution is the next test
Signal
Verified turnover was TZS 14.38bn Mon, 5.07bn Tue, 8.18bn Wed, 6.45bn Thu and 30.46bn Fri, summing to TZS 64.53bn.
Why it matters
Monday and Friday supplied 69.5% of the week's value, while TBL supplied 78.1% of Friday. Printed turnover and distributed liquidity are different evidence.
What to watch
Whether the new week replaces block-and-counter concentration with value spread across more sessions and names.
Source: DSE · Edition 2 Aug 2026 · Data verified · interpretation: Medium confidence
NMB's operating baseline now sits ahead of a fully dated subdivision sequence
Signal
Issuer-reported H1 profit after tax rose 13.2% to TZS 405.766bn, while interest expense grew 36.0%; the one-for-ten subdivision is scheduled to become effective 24 August.
Why it matters
The operating evidence and corporate action answer different questions. Funding costs test earnings quality; the subdivision changes share count and unit-price basis mechanically, not aggregate equity value or proportional ownership.
What to watch
Funding-cost growth and deposit formation remain the operating tests; the verified 19 to 24 August milestones provide the next dated market-structure observations.
Source: NMB Bank Plc · Edition 2 Aug 2026 · Data as reported · interpretation: Medium confidence
Vodacom's next evidence test is cash conversion after the investment step-up
Signal
FY2026 service revenue rose 21.8%, M-Pesa revenue 24.5%, EBITDA 38.8% and reported profit after tax 18.4%.
Why it matters
Capital expenditure rose 85.1% to TZS 323.944bn while free cash flow fell 26.8% to TZS 143.035bn. Operating growth and cash conversion moved in different directions.
What to watch
The next issuer result tests whether data and M-Pesa growth translate into stronger free cash flow after the network-investment step-up; no date is asserted.
Source: Vodacom Tanzania Plc · Edition 2 Aug 2026 · Data as reported · interpretation: Medium confidence
The front end remains below policy until an official auction supplies new evidence
Signal
BoT auction No. 1203 remains the latest verified bill result: 91-day 3.35%, 182-day 4.78% and 364-day 7.03% against a 6.25% CBR.
Why it matters
The 91-day yield is about 290bp below policy. No later official result or verified auction date is available, so the gap is a baseline rather than an outcome call.
What to watch
The next published BoT bill result tests whether the short end begins reconnecting with the policy setting; cadence is not substituted for a calendar date.
Source: BoT · Edition 2 Aug 2026 · Data verified · interpretation: Medium confidence
The next CPI print tests an uneven inflation mix, not a directional forecast
Signal
NBS June headline inflation was 4.0% and food 4.1%; verified release detail put core at 3.7%, services at 5.4% and transport at 13.6%.
Why it matters
The headline remained inside the 3 to 5% band, but transport and services stayed above it. One aggregate does not describe every household or logistics exposure.
What to watch
The next NBS release tests whether transport and services converge toward the headline rate; no publication date is asserted until an official calendar supplies one.
Source: NBS · Edition 2 Aug 2026 · Data verified · interpretation: Medium confidence
The Ghost
The model book
The Ghost's hypothetical TZS 500m model book is +8.16% since inception at its 31 Jul mark. It enters the week with NMB and Vodacom operating evidence in view, while concentration, funding costs and cash conversion remain the observable terrain; not trading signals.
Ghost relevance: how today’s rates, FX, gold and inflation read against a hypothetical model-book; educational, not advice.
How these were chosen: not hand-picked; the name that carried the tape, the week’s biggest gain and steepest fall, then the heaviest remaining names. Educational context only; not a recommendation, and never a price target.
TSI gained 2.53% last week, but session breadth counts remained decline-heavy and Monday plus Friday supplied 69.5% of turnover; the next closes test whether participation spreads.
date not announced
Next verified BoT Treasury-bill result
Auction No. 1203 remains the latest verified result; the next official print tests the roughly 290bp gap between the 91-day yield and the 6.25% CBR.
date not announced
Next NBS CPI release
The next print tests whether June's 4.0% headline continues to sit below transport and services inflation.
19 to 24 Aug 2026
NMB share-subdivision sequence
The final cum-split day, suspension, register close and restart are verified issuer milestones; they provide observable order-count, spread and depth evidence after the mechanical unit-price change.
next issuer result · date not announced
Vodacom cash conversion
FY2026 operating growth came with an 85.1% capex increase and a 26.8% free-cash-flow decline; the next disclosure tests conversion after the investment step-up.
Get the Weekly Brief every weekend.
A sourced review of the full Tanzania market week: the DSE tape and who actually carried it, rates, FX, policy, macro, companies; and what to watch next. Prefer the weekend digest to a daily note? Choose weekly only.
Choose Daily, Weekly, or both; they are separate subscriptions. Information and education only. No advice. No noise. Unsubscribe anytime.
Week-ahead edition; a forward framing of Monday 3 through Friday 7 August 2026, frozen to the Friday verified close (31 Jul 2026). Compiled from public sources for information and education only; not investment advice, a forecast or a recommendation. Equity and index figures reconcile to DSE authority files; the TZS 64.53bn weekly turnover is the sum of five verified session tapes. Rates and FX use Bank of Tanzania data; inflation uses NBS; company results and the NMB subdivision calendar use issuer-native disclosures. The current Wire hand-off was read first; it contained no new primary-source card, and press candidates without independent primary corroboration were omitted. Undated checkpoints remain explicitly undated, and no foreign-flow split is inferred. For live levels, see Markets.