USD / TZS 2,637Gold · $/oz $4,092BoT rate 6.25%Inflation 4.0% 13 Jul 2026 verified close
Tanzania Intelligence

The Brief

Vol. I · No. 195
Tuesday, 14 July 2026
Verified closeDSE · BoT · frozen to the covered session13 Jul 2026 verified close

A daily reading of Tanzania’s markets, capital and policy, with regional and global forces when they materially change the read. Information and education, never advice.

The Brief is written the morning after the market closes. This edition analyses Monday, 13 July 2026; the most recent verified session. Its figures are frozen to that close; for today’s live moves see Markets.

DSE All-Share
4,080.66▼ 0.04%
DSEI · 13 Jul close · latest verified
Tanzania Share Index
8,912.59
TSI · 13 Jul · domestic
USD / TZS
2,637
BoT mean · 13 Jul sheet · −7.6% YTD
Gold · $/oz
$4,092
BoT ref · 13 Jul mark ≈TZS 10.79m/oz
BoT rate
6.25%
CBR · Q3 2026
91-day T-bill
3.42%
BoT WAR · latest auction
364-day T-bill
6.47%
BoT WAR · latest auction
Inflation
4.0%
NBS · Jun 2026 headline · full release pending
Today in 60 seconds
  1. Inflation eases to 4.0% in June; the first read after the fuel-subsidy exit and the 50bp hike passes the band test
  2. A fifth session of drift leaves the All-Share easing on a board that traded about TZS 5bn without blocks
  3. The pass-through test is due: 91-day bills at 3.45% still sit ~280bp below the 6.25% CBR ahead of Auction No. 1203
WatchT-bill auction No. 1203; 91-day pass-through~15 to 16 Jul 2026
Read the full Brief ↓

Did the domestic market and the headline index move together or apart over the covered quarter?

The domestic market against the headline index

Cumulative TSI return minus cumulative DSEI return · frozen at the 2026-07-13 covered session

-0.85 ppCurrent spread+1.70 ppHighest spread-1.88 ppLowest spread
Coverage 2026-04-15 → 2026-07-13 Vintage 2026-07-13 · final Revision current · v0
The domestic market against the headline index. Exact values underlying the chart.
DateRelationshipCumulative gap (pp)
2026-04-15Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0
2026-04-16Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.02
2026-04-17Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.16
2026-04-20Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.15
2026-04-21Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.01
2026-04-22Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.11
2026-04-23Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.1
2026-04-24Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.51
2026-04-27Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.58
2026-04-28Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.34
2026-04-29Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.28
2026-04-30Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.45
2026-05-04Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.22
2026-05-05Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.04
2026-05-06Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.32
2026-05-07Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.58
2026-05-08Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.36
2026-05-11Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.11
2026-05-12Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.16
2026-05-13Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.01
2026-05-14Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.27
2026-05-15Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.31
2026-05-18Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.18
2026-05-19Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.14
2026-05-20Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.02
2026-05-21Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.26
2026-05-22Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.3
2026-05-25Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.84
2026-05-26Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.01
2026-05-28Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.3
2026-05-29Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.21
2026-06-01Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.32
2026-06-02Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.66
2026-06-03Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.41
2026-06-04Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.51
2026-06-05Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.7
2026-06-08Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.54
2026-06-09Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.26
2026-06-10Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.87
2026-06-11Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.68
2026-06-12Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.35
2026-06-15Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.04
2026-06-16Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.11
2026-06-17Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.02
2026-06-18Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.48
2026-06-19Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.36
2026-06-22Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.03
2026-06-23Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.18
2026-06-24Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.28
2026-06-25Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-1.25
2026-06-26Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-1.82
2026-06-29Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-1.88
2026-06-30Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-1.61
2026-07-01Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.89
2026-07-02Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-1.09
2026-07-03Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.79
2026-07-06Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.63
2026-07-08Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.86
2026-07-09Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.84
2026-07-10Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.83
2026-07-13Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.85

Read: Above zero means the domestic index led. Below zero means the all-share led. A flat line near zero means their paths were similar.

Index scope differs. The measure adds only sessions with comparable published returns and is not a portfolio return. The excluded session remains disclosed in the values table.

DSE Tape Check

Market breadth
Broad decline
5 rose, 10 fell
Advancers against decliners on the verified DSE close.

Descriptive flags from the verified DSE close; not signals, predictions, or advice. The official close, fully broken down; After the Bell →

Macro

Inflation eases to 4.0% in June; the first read after the fuel-subsidy exit and the 50bp hike passes the band test

Signal

June headline CPI eased to 4.0% y/y from May's 4.2% per the flash read; food fell 0.7% m/m while transport rose 1.6% m/m (+13.6% y/y).

Why it matters

The print lands inside the 3 to 5% band in the first month both the subsidy exit and the 2 Jul hike could show up; transport, not food, carries the pressure.

What to watch

The full NBS release confirming the flash, and whether this week's bill auction moves the 91-day toward the 6.25% CBR.

Source: NBS · Edition 14 Jul 2026
Go deeper →
Markets

A fifth session of drift leaves the All-Share easing on a board that traded about TZS 5bn without blocks

Signal

The All-Share closed 13 Jul at 4,080.66 (−0.04%), a fifth straight easing session; ex-block turnover ≈TZS 5.2bn by board approximation.

Why it matters

The drift since the 3 Jul peak stays orderly; TCCL's 8.8% volume bid ran against SWIS and DSE plc retracements while the banks held flat to soft.

What to watch

Whether breadth in CRDB and NMB reasserts at ordinary turnover before Thursday's Vision 2050 launch, and whether TCCL's bid extends.

Source: DSE · Edition 14 Jul 2026
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Rates

The pass-through test is due: 91-day bills at 3.45% still sit ~280bp below the 6.25% CBR ahead of Auction No. 1203

Signal

The BoT register re-checked 14 Jul still shows Auction No. 1202 (2 Jul); 91-day WAR 3.4549%, 364-day 7.1175%; No. 1203 expected ~15 to 16 Jul.

Why it matters

A policy rate the short bill ignores is a policy rate that isn't transmitting; the 364-day already clears the CBR, the 91-day does not.

What to watch

Whether the 91-day WAR steps toward 6.25% at No. 1203, and whether the 364-day holds above 7%.

Source: Bank of Tanzania · Edition 14 Jul 2026
Go deeper →
Capital markets

A regional East Africa ETF's weekly disclosure puts Tanzania at 34.7% of the book, with NMB its largest DSE constituent

Signal

The week-ended-10-Jul disclosure weights Kenya 50.5%, Tanzania 34.7%; DSE names held: NMB 11.2%, TCC 8.4%, TCCL 4.7%, TPCC 4.6%, CRDB 3.0%.

Why it matters

Regional passive flow tilts to Nairobi's float depth; within the Tanzania sleeve it concentrates in NMB and cement/consumer names rather than breadth.

What to watch

Week-over-week drift in the Tanzania weight, the banking-vs-cement split, and any new DSE constituent that widens the sleeve.

Source: DSE · Edition 14 Jul 2026
Go deeper →
Policy

Vision 2050 launches Thursday in Dodoma as Tanzania presents its Voluntary National Review at the UN today

Signal

Dira 2050; a $1tn-economy plan across nine sectors; launches 17 Jul; the VNR goes to the UN today with the IMF exit in hand.

Why it matters

With donor grants set to fall ~39%, delivery leans on private and external capital; the market test is named financing vehicles, LNG-Lindi foremost.

What to watch

Named vehicles and MoUs around the launch, and any listed-sector read-through in banks, cement and energy.

Source: Open-source reporting · Edition 14 Jul 2026 · Data open-source · interpretation: Medium confidence
The Ghost

The model book

The Ghost's hypothetical TZS 500m model book is +4.05% since inception at the 13 Jul mark, with NMB Bank its largest equity allocation.

Ghost relevance: how today’s rates, FX, gold and inflation read against a hypothetical model-book; educational, not advice.

Open the Ghost tracker → The terrain it reads →
Week ahead; what to watch
WhenEventWhy it matters
~15 to 16 Jul 2026T-bill auction No. 1203; 91-day pass-throughDecides whether the 50bp hike transmits; sets the deposit-vs-bill switch maths
mid-Jul 2026Full NBS June CPI releaseConfirms the 4.0% flash and the food-vs-transport split behind it
Thu 17 Jul 2026Vision 2050 launch, DodomaNamed financing vehicles vs restated targets; IMF exit and 4.0% CPI as podium credentials
14 to 15 Jul 2026Fed Chair Warsh congressional testimonyHawkish confirmation would tighten EM risk conditions and the import-bill arithmetic
This weekDSE breadth & block follow-throughWhether the five-session drift bottoms and TCCL's volume bid extends
Get the Daily Brief before the market opens.

A free daily Tanzania market-intelligence note covering DSE moves, rates, FX, policy, macro signals and what to watch next.

Information and education only. No advice. No noise. Unsubscribe anytime.

Compiled from open-source reporting for information and education only; not investment advice. Equity and index figures reconcile to the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange verified close (13 Jul 2026); rates to the Bank of Tanzania; FX and gold to the BoT 13 Jul indicative sheet; inflation to the NBS. Figures are as reported and require refresh against official data.

Archive; past editions59
Will trading value catch up with rising indices?Sunday, 13 September 2026Share indices rose as less money changed handsSaturday, 12 September 2026Both main indices rose as two banks carried most tradingFriday, 11 September 2026Both main indices rose as equity turnover fell by halfThursday, 10 September 2026The broad index fell while domestic shares edged higherWednesday, 9 September 2026Both main indices rose again, while two banks carried most trading valueTuesday, 8 September 2026Both main indices rose, but two banks still carried most trading valueMonday, 7 September 2026Index direction, trading breadth and Wednesday's bill auction set the next testsSunday, 6 September 2026The broad market rose while Tanzania-listed shares ended lowerSaturday, 5 September 2026CRDB supplied more than three quarters of Thursday's equity turnoverFriday, 4 September 2026Wednesday's DSE close combined a higher DSEI with a lower TSIThursday, 3 September 2026Tuesday's indices weakened while NMB carried most trading valueWednesday, 2 September 2026Monday eased while one bank carried most trading valueTuesday, 1 September 2026Friday rose, but one bank still carried most trading valueMonday, 31 August 2026Comparability, liquidity breadth and Wednesday's bond auction set the next evidence testsSunday, 30 August 2026Index returns stayed unavailable as Friday liquidity remained concentratedSaturday, 29 August 2026DSE index returns went unavailable as NMB carried 89.8% of turnoverFriday, 28 August 2026Mobile access widened as the verified tape strengthened and bill yields fellThursday, 27 August 2026Swissport’s cash conversion strengthened while DSE index returns remained unavailableWednesday, 26 August 2026The DSE scale changed while the underlying equity tape remained activeTuesday, 25 August 2026The DSE indices eased as CRDB carried most verified turnoverMonday, 24 August 2026A split index tape, lighter Friday liquidity and stable FX set up the next evidence testsSunday, 23 August 2026The All-Share rose, the domestic tape slipped and liquidity thinned into FridaySaturday, 22 August 2026DSEI edged up as CRDB led the verified turnover poolFriday, 21 August 2026DSEI rose as NMB carried 59.2% of turnoverThursday, 20 August 2026Friday's wider advance still depended on three counters for 84.7% of turnoverMonday, 17 August 2026NMB mechanics and a long-bond auction turn last week's gains into tests of market depthSunday, 16 August 2026Both indices rose, but five-session turnover still depended on a few namesSaturday, 15 August 2026Both headline indices accelerated; NMB still carried 66.1% of turnoverFriday, 14 August 2026Both headline indices advanced; NMB still carried 72.5% of turnoverThursday, 13 August 2026Both headline indices fell; two banks still carried 87.6% of turnoverWednesday, 12 August 2026Inflation rose to 4.2%; transport remained the pressure pointTuesday, 11 August 2026An official curve arrives; market depth is the testMonday, 10 August 2026A narrow equity tape meets a dated rates test while credit evidence awaits confirmationSunday, 9 August 2026The indices eased, two banks carried the money, and private credit acceleratedSaturday, 8 August 2026Private credit accelerated to 28.1% as the equity tape split againFriday, 7 August 2026DSEI rose, TSI fell as NMB carried 67.2% of turnoverThursday, 6 August 2026Breadth balanced, but CRDB and NMB still carried 73.0% of turnoverWednesday, 5 August 2026The indices barely moved; CRDB and NMB supplied 94.3% of turnoverTuesday, 4 August 2026TZS 30.46bn traded, but TBL carried nearly four shillings in fiveMonday, 3 August 2026Domestic strength enters a breadth test while the next policy and issuer evidence waits on the calendarSunday, 2 August 2026Domestic shares outran the headline index; but two concentrated sessions supplied most of the moneySaturday, 1 August 2026Indices rose, but two banks carried 84.1% of turnoverFriday, 31 July 2026Indices rose, but two banks carried 92.6% of turnoverThursday, 30 July 2026Every domestic index rose, but two banks carried almost nine shillings in tenWednesday, 29 July 2026Money returned, but four counters carried almost eighty-five per cent of the sessionTuesday, 28 July 2026The test week opens: a credit tailwind lands on the banks that sat still through the recordMonday, 27 July 2026A record made on three prints meets its first dated tests; the month-end auction and an FOMC weekSunday, 26 July 2026A record with an asterisk; the All-Share closes at an all-time high in a week more names fell than roseSaturday, 25 July 2026The rise broadens into industrials and services; but CRDB carries more than half the moneyFriday, 24 July 2026The give-back reverses on the heaviest tape in weeks; but three-quarters of it is one Breweries blockThursday, 23 July 2026A second thin give-back leaves the tape 25 points off the high; while the exchange's half-year numbers tell the opposite storyWednesday, 22 July 2026A thin Monday pause nine points under the record, as the rail story hardens from headlines into contractsTuesday, 21 July 2026Monday reopens off Friday's record-adjacent close, into a week with nothing dated on the calendarMonday, 20 July 2026A week with nothing dated on the market calendar; so the question turns to breadth, not dataSunday, 19 July 2026The DSE claws back its early-July dip; up 0.72% on three straight gains, back within a whisker of its recordSaturday, 18 July 2026CRDB supplies 93% of a TZS 55.20bn board while breadth turns negativeFriday, 17 July 2026The crossing did not repeat; turnover falls 28x to TZS 2.71bn and the All-Share gains for the first time in seven sessionsThursday, 16 July 2026CRDB alone was 97% of Tuesday's board; TZS 73.4bn on 27.2m shares as the All-Share eased a sixth sessionWednesday, 15 July 2026