KCP. USD/TZS 2,645
Tanzania Share Index 9,331.91 ▲ 0.35%USD / TZS 2,645.24BoT rate 6.25%Inflation 4.2% 14 Aug 2026 verified close
Tanzania Intelligence

The Brief

Vol. I · No. 229
Monday, 17 August 2026
Verified closeDSE · BoT · frozen to the covered session14 Aug 2026 verified close

A daily reading of Tanzania’s markets, capital and policy, with regional and global forces when they materially change the read. Information and education, never advice.

The Brief is written the morning after the market closes. This edition analyses Friday, 14 August 2026; the most recent verified session. Its figures are frozen to that close; for today’s live moves see Markets.

DSE All-Share
4,232.85▲ 0.1%
DSEI · 14 Aug close · latest verified
Tanzania Share Index
9,331.91
TSI · 14 Aug · domestic
USD / TZS
2,645.24
BoT mean · 17 Aug sheet
BoT rate
6.25%
CBR · Q3 2026
91-day T-bill
3.44%
BoT WAR · latest auction
364-day T-bill
6.74%
BoT WAR · latest auction
Inflation
4.2%
NBS · July 2026 headline
Today in 60 seconds
  1. Friday's wider advance still depended on three counters for 84.7% of turnover
  2. Positive breadth still met a concentrated pool of money
  3. JNHPP completion shifts the test from construction to utilisation
WatchDSE breadth and turnover distributionafter the 17 Aug session
Read the full Brief ↓

Did the domestic-only and all-share indices tell the same story over the covered quarter?

The domestic market against the headline index

2026-05-14 = 100 · frozen at the 2026-08-14 covered session

+10.9%TSI · quarter+10.5%DSEI · quarter
Coverage 2026-05-14 → 2026-08-14 Vintage 2026-08-14 · final Revision current · v0
The domestic market against the headline index. Exact values underlying the chart.
DateIndexRebasedRaw level
2026-05-14Tanzania Share Index1008,417.39
2026-05-15Tanzania Share Index99.90038,409
2026-05-18Tanzania Share Index100.36268,447.91
2026-05-19Tanzania Share Index100.50978,460.29
2026-05-20Tanzania Share Index100.23048,436.78
2026-05-21Tanzania Share Index101.28478,525.53
2026-05-22Tanzania Share Index101.72058,562.21
2026-05-25Tanzania Share Index103.48648,710.85
2026-05-26Tanzania Share Index104.13368,765.33
2026-05-28Tanzania Share Index104.37528,785.67
2026-05-29Tanzania Share Index104.24248,774.49
2026-06-01Tanzania Share Index104.69318,812.43
2026-06-02Tanzania Share Index105.37528,869.84
2026-06-03Tanzania Share Index104.91468,831.07
2026-06-04Tanzania Share Index105.27298,861.23
2026-06-05Tanzania Share Index104.71838,814.55
2026-06-08Tanzania Share Index104.7588,817.89
2026-06-09Tanzania Share Index104.29478,778.89
2026-06-10Tanzania Share Index103.67478,726.7
2026-06-11Tanzania Share Index102.66018,641.3
2026-06-12Tanzania Share Index102.09968,594.12
2026-06-15Tanzania Share Index100.99768,501.36
2026-06-16Tanzania Share Index102.09238,593.51
2026-06-17Tanzania Share Index102.39118,618.66
2026-06-18Tanzania Share Index102.87028,658.99
2026-06-19Tanzania Share Index102.74598,648.52
2026-06-22Tanzania Share Index102.4448,623.11
2026-06-23Tanzania Share Index102.31348,612.12
2026-06-24Tanzania Share Index102.5948,635.74
2026-06-25Tanzania Share Index102.83918,656.37
2026-06-26Tanzania Share Index103.44568,707.42
2026-06-29Tanzania Share Index103.76588,734.37
2026-06-30Tanzania Share Index104.27348,777.1
2026-07-01Tanzania Share Index105.24188,858.61
2026-07-02Tanzania Share Index105.87578,911.97
2026-07-03Tanzania Share Index106.88698,997.09
2026-07-06Tanzania Share Index106.7048,981.69
2026-07-08Tanzania Share Index106.43578,959.11
2026-07-09Tanzania Share Index106.12038,932.56
2026-07-10Tanzania Share Index105.95058,918.27
2026-07-13Tanzania Share Index105.88318,912.59
2026-07-14Tanzania Share Index105.65718,893.57
2026-07-15Tanzania Share Index106.12558,933
2026-07-16Tanzania Share Index106.21218,940.29
2026-07-17Tanzania Share Index106.5578,969.32
2026-07-20Tanzania Share Index106.35528,952.33
2026-07-21Tanzania Share Index106.24968,943.44
2026-07-22Tanzania Share Index106.59548,972.55
2026-07-23Tanzania Share Index106.98499,005.34
2026-07-24Tanzania Share Index106.77918,988.01
2026-07-27Tanzania Share Index107.62799,059.46
2026-07-28Tanzania Share Index108.61919,142.89
2026-07-29Tanzania Share Index108.97179,172.57
2026-07-30Tanzania Share Index109.51789,218.54
2026-07-31Tanzania Share Index109.47799,215.18
2026-08-03Tanzania Share Index109.29969,200.17
2026-08-04Tanzania Share Index109.04979,179.14
2026-08-05Tanzania Share Index108.9789,173.1
2026-08-06Tanzania Share Index109.15079,187.64
2026-08-07Tanzania Share Index108.93779,169.71
2026-08-10Tanzania Share Index109.38459,207.32
2026-08-11Tanzania Share Index108.93389,169.38
2026-08-12Tanzania Share Index109.23659,194.86
2026-08-13Tanzania Share Index110.48139,299.64
2026-08-14Tanzania Share Index110.86479,331.91
2026-05-14DSE All Share1003,831.18
2026-05-15DSE All Share99.93473,828.68
2026-05-18DSE All Share100.27493,841.71
2026-05-19DSE All Share100.37563,845.57
2026-05-20DSE All Share99.97473,830.21
2026-05-21DSE All Share100.74913,859.88
2026-05-22DSE All Share101.14513,875.05
2026-05-25DSE All Share102.35623,921.45
2026-05-26DSE All Share102.82263,939.32
2026-05-28DSE All Share102.75893,936.88
2026-05-29DSE All Share102.72243,935.48
2026-06-01DSE All Share103.05443,948.2
2026-06-02DSE All Share103.37573,960.51
2026-06-03DSE All Share103.17943,952.99
2026-06-04DSE All Share103.42453,962.38
2026-06-05DSE All Share102.68593,934.08
2026-06-08DSE All Share102.88793,941.82
2026-06-09DSE All Share102.72763,935.68
2026-06-10DSE All Share102.51153,927.4
2026-06-11DSE All Share101.70993,896.69
2026-06-12DSE All Share101.48413,888.04
2026-06-15DSE All Share100.79043,861.46
2026-06-16DSE All Share101.72953,897.44
2026-06-17DSE All Share102.11813,912.33
2026-06-18DSE All Share103.10453,950.12
2026-06-19DSE All Share102.85323,940.49
2026-06-22DSE All Share102.15733,913.83
2026-06-23DSE All Share102.23693,916.88
2026-06-24DSE All Share102.62093,931.59
2026-06-25DSE All Share103.86463,979.24
2026-06-26DSE All Share105.06194,025.11
2026-06-29DSE All Share105.45164,040.04
2026-06-30DSE All Share105.68024,048.8
2026-07-01DSE All Share105.94,057.22
2026-07-02DSE All Share106.75854,090.11
2026-07-03DSE All Share107.45334,116.73
2026-07-06DSE All Share107.09344,102.94
2026-07-08DSE All Share107.07044,102.06
2026-07-09DSE All Share106.73584,089.24
2026-07-10DSE All Share106.5584,082.43
2026-07-13DSE All Share106.51184,080.66
2026-07-14DSE All Share106.49414,079.98
2026-07-15DSE All Share106.79094,091.35
2026-07-16DSE All Share107.09344,102.94
2026-07-17DSE All Share107.32934,111.98
2026-07-20DSE All Share107.09054,102.83
2026-07-21DSE All Share106.81234,092.17
2026-07-22DSE All Share107.06544,101.87
2026-07-23DSE All Share107.34664,112.64
2026-07-24DSE All Share108.32544,150.14
2026-07-27DSE All Share108.10594,141.73
2026-07-28DSE All Share108.67254,163.44
2026-07-29DSE All Share108.92544,173.13
2026-07-30DSE All Share109.49294,194.87
2026-07-31DSE All Share109.37654,190.41
2026-08-03DSE All Share109.29324,187.22
2026-08-04DSE All Share109.1754,182.69
2026-08-05DSE All Share109.33894,188.97
2026-08-06DSE All Share109.03984,177.51
2026-08-07DSE All Share109.1934,183.38
2026-08-10DSE All Share109.23294,184.91
2026-08-11DSE All Share108.52434,157.76
2026-08-12DSE All Share109.05154,177.96
2026-08-13DSE All Share110.37854,228.8
2026-08-14DSE All Share110.48424,232.85

Read: The rebased paths show the part of the domestic move that the broader headline index does; and does not; capture.

Index scope differs. Neither line is the return of every constituent or of a reader’s portfolio.

DSE Tape Check

Market breadth
Positive tilt
10 rose, 7 fell
Advancers against decliners on the verified DSE close.
Turnover concentration
Concentrated
One name carried the tape
NMB Bank was 49% of turnover; index moves overstate how broad the day really was.

Descriptive flags from the verified DSE close; not signals, predictions, or advice. The official close, fully broken down; After the Bell →

Breadth improved, money stayed concentrated

Friday's wider advance still depended on three counters for 84.7% of turnover

Signal

4,232.85 rose 0.10% and 9,331.91 0.35%; ten counters advanced against seven decliners.

Why it matters

NMB, TPCC and CRDB supplied 84.7% of TZS 7.247bn equity turnover.

What to watch

The 17 August close tests whether value broadens before NMB's subdivision timetable begins.

Source: DSE · Edition 17 Aug 2026
Go deeper →
Turnover distribution

Positive breadth still met a concentrated pool of money

Signal

4,232.85 rose 0.10% and 9,331.91 0.35%; NMB, TPCC and CRDB supplied 84.7% of turnover.

Why it matters

Ten counters advanced against seven decliners, but all other counters shared 15.3% of traded value.

What to watch

The 17 August close tests whether a wider set of counters attracts value.

Source: DSE · Edition 17 Aug 2026 · Data verified · interpretation: Medium confidence
Go deeper →
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Power completion boundary

JNHPP completion shifts the test from construction to utilisation

Signal

The Ministry records all nine 2,115 MW units complete; formal inauguration is reported for 22 August.

Why it matters

Completed capacity is not yet evidence of dispatch, transmission or productive demand.

What to watch

Post-inauguration dispatch and transmission data remain undated checkpoints.

Source: Ministry of Energy and open-source reporting · Edition 17 Aug 2026 · Data open-source · interpretation: Medium confidence
Treasury-bill curve

Auction 1204 kept the verified bill curve upward sloping

Signal

Weighted-average yields ran from 2.1276% at 35 days to 6.7441% at 364 days.

Why it matters

Each tenor is an official auction observation; the curve alone does not establish a policy shift.

What to watch

The 19 August 15-year reopening is the next dated government-securities test.

Source: Bank of Tanzania · Edition 17 Aug 2026 · Data verified · interpretation: Medium confidence
Go deeper →
External account

Gold exports outpaced total export growth in the July MER

Signal

In the year to June, gold exports grew 36.4% and total goods and services exports 17.2%.

Why it matters

The same report records US$5.6735bn of reserves and 4.4 months of projected import cover.

What to watch

The next MER release is not yet dated; no June observation is rolled forward.

Source: Bank of Tanzania · Edition 17 Aug 2026 · Data verified · interpretation: Medium confidence
Go deeper →
The Ghost

The model book

The Ghost's hypothetical model ledger is +9.21% since inception at its 14 Aug mark. Turnover distribution, the bill curve and dated implementation tests update the observable terrain, not trades.

Ghost relevance: how today’s rates, FX, gold and inflation read against a hypothetical model-book; educational, not advice.

Open the Ghost tracker → The terrain it reads →
Week ahead; what to watch
WhenEventWhy it matters
after the 17 Aug sessionDSE breadth and turnover distributionFriday's positive breadth still left 84.7% of equity turnover in three counters.
17 Aug 2026, when publishedSADC summit communiquéThe official summit theme is an agenda; implementation language remains the evidence test.
19 Aug 2026Bank of Tanzania 15-year bond reopeningThe official issuance calendar identifies the reopening; its result remains separate from the bill curve.
19 to 24 Aug 2026NMB share-subdivision sequenceThe retained issuer notice separates the last cum-split day, suspension and adjusted resumption.
22 Aug 2026, as reportedJNHPP formal inaugurationThe next test is operating evidence after the ceremony, not the capacity headline alone.
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Information and education only. Not investment advice, a forecast or a recommendation. Market figures reconcile to the verified 14 August 2026 DSE close; other observations retain their own source dates.

Archive; past editions56
NMB mechanics and a long-bond auction turn last week's gains into tests of market depthSunday, 16 August 2026Both indices rose, but five-session turnover still depended on a few namesSaturday, 15 August 2026Both headline indices accelerated; NMB still carried 66.1% of turnoverFriday, 14 August 2026Both headline indices advanced; NMB still carried 72.5% of turnoverThursday, 13 August 2026Both headline indices fell; two banks still carried 87.6% of turnoverWednesday, 12 August 2026Inflation rose to 4.2%; transport remained the pressure pointTuesday, 11 August 2026An official curve arrives; market depth is the testMonday, 10 August 2026A narrow equity tape meets a dated rates test while credit evidence awaits confirmationSunday, 9 August 2026The indices eased, two banks carried the money, and private credit acceleratedSaturday, 8 August 2026Private credit accelerated to 28.1% as the equity tape split againFriday, 7 August 2026DSEI rose, TSI fell as NMB carried 67.2% of turnoverThursday, 6 August 2026Breadth balanced, but CRDB and NMB still carried 73.0% of turnoverWednesday, 5 August 2026The indices barely moved; CRDB and NMB supplied 94.3% of turnoverTuesday, 4 August 2026TZS 30.46bn traded, but TBL carried nearly four shillings in fiveMonday, 3 August 2026Domestic strength enters a breadth test while the next policy and issuer evidence waits on the calendarSunday, 2 August 2026Domestic shares outran the headline index; but two concentrated sessions supplied most of the moneySaturday, 1 August 2026Indices rose, but two banks carried 84.1% of turnoverFriday, 31 July 2026Indices rose, but two banks carried 92.6% of turnoverThursday, 30 July 2026Every domestic index rose, but two banks carried almost nine shillings in tenWednesday, 29 July 2026Money returned, but four counters carried almost eighty-five per cent of the sessionTuesday, 28 July 2026The test week opens: a credit tailwind lands on the banks that sat still through the recordMonday, 27 July 2026A record made on three prints meets its first dated tests; the month-end auction and an FOMC weekSunday, 26 July 2026A record with an asterisk; the All-Share closes at an all-time high in a week more names fell than roseSaturday, 25 July 2026The rise broadens into industrials and services; but CRDB carries more than half the moneyFriday, 24 July 2026The give-back reverses on the heaviest tape in weeks; but three-quarters of it is one Breweries blockThursday, 23 July 2026A second thin give-back leaves the tape 25 points off the high; while the exchange's half-year numbers tell the opposite storyWednesday, 22 July 2026A thin Monday pause nine points under the record, as the rail story hardens from headlines into contractsTuesday, 21 July 2026Monday reopens off Friday's record-adjacent close, into a week with nothing dated on the calendarMonday, 20 July 2026A week with nothing dated on the market calendar; so the question turns to breadth, not dataSunday, 19 July 2026The DSE claws back its early-July dip; up 0.72% on three straight gains, back within a whisker of its recordSaturday, 18 July 2026CRDB supplies 93% of a TZS 55.20bn board while breadth turns negativeFriday, 17 July 2026The crossing did not repeat; turnover falls 28x to TZS 2.71bn and the All-Share gains for the first time in seven sessionsThursday, 16 July 2026CRDB alone was 97% of Tuesday's board; TZS 73.4bn on 27.2m shares as the All-Share eased a sixth sessionWednesday, 15 July 2026Inflation eases to 4.0% in June; the first read after the fuel-subsidy exit and the 50bp hike passes the band testTuesday, 14 July 2026The DSE reopens at 4,082.43 with four declines behind it and the week's two dated events aheadMonday, 13 July 2026Two dated events, one question: what the hurdle rate is, and who pays for the ambitionSunday, 12 July 2026Four sessions, four declines: the DSE gives back a little of its record, and one CRDB crossing carries the tapeSaturday, 11 July 2026The DSE eases in its first full session back as a mild foreign net-selling tilt meets thin breadthFriday, 10 July 2026Saba Saba reframed as a managed trade showcase as the runway to the 17 July Vision 2050 launch clearsThursday, 9 July 2026Saba Saba passes as a shutdown, not a clash: Kariakoo deserted under heavy security as the market reopensWednesday, 8 July 2026Saba Saba day: DSE closed and security deployed across Dar, with a quiet commemoration the base caseTuesday, 7 July 2026Saba Saba eve: rally ban enforced with deployments across Dar as the TPDF warns off protest callsMonday, 6 July 2026Bank of Tanzania lifts the policy rate to 6.25%, the first tightening of the cycleSunday, 5 July 2026DSE All-Share caps a record week at 4,116.73 with a third straight all-time highSaturday, 4 July 2026DSE All-Share extends the record run to 4,090.11 as banks carry the fiscal-year openFriday, 3 July 2026DSE All-Share opens the fiscal year at a record 4,057.22 as domestic counters leadThursday, 2 July 2026Tanzania's record budget and Vision 2050 take legal effect as the execution clock startsWednesday, 1 July 2026Tanzania's record budget and DIRA 2050 take legal effect tomorrow as the fiscal year turnsTuesday, 30 June 2026DIRA 2050's implementation instruments launch today as Tanzania's new fiscal year opensMonday, 29 June 2026Tanzania opens its new fiscal year: DIRA 2050 instruments launch Monday, DSE reopens above 4,000Sunday, 28 June 2026DSE All-Share jumps 2.38% to 4,025 as cross-listed banks outpace the domestic tapeFriday, 26 June 2026Tanzania enters 2026/27 with a record budget and a 25-year horizonThursday, 25 June 2026Vision 2050 launch nears as DIRA planning instruments reach parliamentWednesday, 24 June 2026DIRA 2050 launches 1 July with a $47bn strategic-project spineTuesday, 23 June 2026TZS 62.33tn FY2026/27 budget takes effect 1 JulyMonday, 22 June 2026Samia to launch Vision (Dira) 2050 instruments on 29 JuneSunday, 21 June 2026