Tanzania Share Index 10,255.60USD / TZS 2,639.25BoT rate 6.25% Week to 2026-10-02 · verified close
Tanzania Intelligence

The Brief

Vol. I · No. 274
Saturday, 3 October 2026
Verified closeDSE · BoT · frozen to the covered session2 Oct 2026 verified close

A daily reading of Tanzania’s markets, capital and policy, with regional and global forces when they materially change the read. Information and education, never advice.

Weekly overview; the week in review, frozen at Saturday’s publication and covering the 2 Oct 2026 verified close (the week’s last verified session). Its figures are frozen to that close; for today’s live moves see Markets.

Weekly market scoreboard

2026-10-02 close · change ON THE WEEK · DSE · BoT · NBS
DSE All-Share
4,631.77
▼ -1.08%
DSEI · 2 Oct close
Tanzania Share Index
10,255.60
▼ -1.57%
TSI · 2 Oct close
USD / TZS
2,639.25
▼ -0.15%
BoT mean · hard-currency lens
BoT rate
6.25%
policy
CBR · policy anchor
91-day T-bill
3.49%
▼ -3bp
BoT WAR · vs prior auction
364-day T-bill
6.28%
▼ -18bp
BoT WAR · vs prior auction

The read: the Friday close, with the move across the whole week beside it; not the one-session change the daily Brief shows. The implication: the index level alone never says whether the week was broad or carried by a couple of names; breadth and turnover do.

DSE weekly tape check

DSE · 5 verified sessions to 2026-10-02
Sessions
5
verified DSE closes
Weekly turnover
TZS 27.9bn
sum of the week's value traded
Breadth
0 up / 0 down
0 unchanged · counters that moved across the week
Best session
+0.08%
2026-09-30
Worst session
-0.50%
2026-09-28
Peak concentration
65%
CRDB carried 2026-10-02
Concentration by session; the top name’s share of each session’s turnover
2026-09-28 · CRDB
55%
2026-09-29 · CRDB
47%
2026-09-30 · CRDB
62%
2026-10-01 · CRDB
49%
2026-10-02 · CRDB
65%

What the index hid: highly concentrated; the single heaviest name took 65% of one session’s turnover. A week can look active and still be carried by one counter. Each close, fully broken down; After the Bell →

The hurdle rate

Bank of Tanzania · WARs as at 2026-10-07
CBR · policy anchor
6.25%
91-day WAR · the front end
3.49%
182-day WAR
5.63%
364-day WAR · income anchor
6.28%

How to read this: short government paper is the opportunity cost of taking equity risk. Why it matters: the higher the front end sits, the more dividends, earnings growth and liquidity equities must deliver to clear it. Educational; not advice.

The transmission chain

How a weaker shilling reaches the shopping basket
The shilling
USD/TZS 2,632
▼ -0.15%
2026-10-14 · Bank of Tanzania
Fuel cap
Diesel TZS 4,086/l
▲ +5.39%
2026-10 · EWURA · monthly cap
Food
Maize TZS 74,500/t
flat
2026-08-24 · Wholesale · MIT

How to read this: each link carries its own authority and its own lag; FX moves daily, fuel caps monthly, food weekly, CPI monthly. Why it matters: this is the chain that turns a currency move into a cost-of-living move. Descriptive, not predictive; the links are shown, not forecast.

KANZA CAPITAL PARTNERSThe Weekly Brief
The DSE week to 2 Oct
DSEI -1.08% · TSI -1.57% · USD/TZS -0.15% on the week
Read: Headline and domestic agreed, the shilling firmed.
Weekly moves computed from verified closes · 2026-10-02kanzacapitalpartners.com · education, not advice

The week card; built to be screenshotted and shared. Every figure is computed from the verified record.

The week in 90 seconds
  1. Domestic shares fell faster than the wider market
  2. Banks fell while industrial share prices rose
  3. The 364-day Treasury bill yield fell at the latest auction
WatchNext verified DSE closeNext official session; date not yet published
Read the full Brief ↓

Did the domestic market and the headline index move together or apart over the covered quarter?

The domestic market against the headline index

Cumulative TSI return minus cumulative DSEI return · frozen at the 2026-10-02 covered session

+0.71 ppCurrent spread+1.66 ppHighest spread-1.26 ppLowest spread
Coverage 2026-07-06 → 2026-10-02 Vintage 2026-10-02 · final Revision current · v0
The domestic market against the headline index. Exact values underlying the chart.
DateRelationshipCumulative gap (pp)
2026-07-06Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0
2026-07-08Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.23
2026-07-09Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.21
2026-07-10Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.21
2026-07-13Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.23
2026-07-14Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.42
2026-07-15Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.26
2026-07-16Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.46
2026-07-17Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.36
2026-07-20Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.32
2026-07-21Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.16
2026-07-22Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.07
2026-07-23Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.03
2026-07-24Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-1.08
2026-07-27Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.08
2026-07-28Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.32
2026-07-29Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.41
2026-07-30Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.39
2026-07-31Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.46
2026-08-03Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.37
2026-08-04Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.25
2026-08-05Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.04
2026-08-06Cumulative TSI minus DSEIN/A
2026-08-07Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.3
2026-08-10Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.07
2026-08-11Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.31
2026-08-12Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.1
2026-08-13Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.03
2026-08-14Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.28
2026-08-17Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.09
2026-08-18Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.03
2026-08-19Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.3
2026-08-20Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.17
2026-08-21Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.24
2026-08-24Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.14
2026-08-26Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.65
2026-08-27Cumulative TSI minus DSEIN/A
2026-08-28Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.31
2026-08-31Cumulative TSI minus DSEIN/A
2026-09-01Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.9
2026-09-02Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-0.14
2026-09-03Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-1.23
2026-09-04Cumulative TSI minus DSEI-1.26
2026-09-07Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.16
2026-09-08Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.72
2026-09-09Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.77
2026-09-10Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.66
2026-09-11Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.52
2026-09-14Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.28
2026-09-15Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.08
2026-09-16Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.22
2026-09-17Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.35
2026-09-18Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.46
2026-09-21Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.1
2026-09-22Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.12
2026-09-23Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.09
2026-09-24Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.17
2026-09-25Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.21
2026-09-28Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.89
2026-09-29Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.84
2026-09-30Cumulative TSI minus DSEI1.04
2026-10-01Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.74
2026-10-02Cumulative TSI minus DSEI0.71

Read: Above zero means the domestic index led. Below zero means the all-share led. A flat line near zero means their paths were similar.

Index scope differs. The measure adds only sessions with comparable published returns and is not a portfolio return. The excluded session remains disclosed in the values table.

The week in review

Domestic shares fell faster than the wider market

Signal

Tanzania’s main share-price measures fell this week. Domestic-company prices fell more than the wider market.

Why it matters

From 25 September to 2 October, domestic shares fell 1.57% and all shares 1.08%. Friday: DSEI 4,631.77, TSI 10,255.60.

What to watch

Industrial shares rose. The main indexes do not describe every company or establish why investors traded.

Source: Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange, verified 25 September and 2 October index endpoints · Edition 3 Oct 2026
Go deeper →
Share prices

Banks fell while industrial share prices rose

Signal

The main share-price measures fell, but industrial shares rose. The week did not move in one direction.

Why it matters

Domestic prices fell 1.57%; all shares fell 1.08%. Banks fell 2.22%, while industrials rose 0.43%. These are price measures, not investor counts.

What to watch

The next verified close tests whether the difference continues. Sector composition can explain different moves without a common market cause.

Source: DSE verified index endpoints, 25 September and 2 October; change = last divided by first minus one. · Edition 3 Oct 2026 · Data verified · interpretation: Medium confidence
Go deeper →
Get the Weekly Brief every weekend.

A sourced review of the full Tanzania market week: the DSE tape and who actually carried it, rates, FX, policy, macro, companies; and what to watch next. Prefer the weekend digest to a daily note? Choose weekly only.

Choose Daily, Weekly, or both; they are separate subscriptions. Information and education only. No advice. No noise. Unsubscribe anytime.
Government borrowing

The 364-day Treasury bill yield fell at the latest auction

Signal

The latest verified bill auction remains 23 September. It is an earlier borrowing observation, not a new result this week.

Why it matters

Its 364-day yield was 6.29%, versus 6.47% on 9 September. Yield is the annual rate implied by the price, before saver fees or tax.

What to watch

A later official auction result is needed to describe a new change. The current record does not establish one.

Source: Bank of Tanzania, auctions 1206 and 1207, 9 and 23 September; weighted average yields rounded in prose. · Edition 3 Oct 2026 · Data verified · interpretation: Medium confidence
Go deeper →
Currency context

The official dollar mean fell slightly in shilling terms

Signal

One United States dollar required slightly fewer shillings on Friday’s official sheet than a week earlier.

Why it matters

The official mean was TZS 2,641.42 on 2 October, against TZS 2,645.45 on 25 September. Customer conversion rates and fees differ.

What to watch

The next dated sheet tests whether the change persists. Currency and share-price moves alone do not establish a shared cause.

Source: Bank of Tanzania finalized indicative USD/TZS means, 25 September and 2 October; prose rounded to two decimals. · Edition 3 Oct 2026 · Data verified · interpretation: Medium confidence
Go deeper →
Opportunity Wire

Existing cement production and investment discussions are different evidence

Signal

A regional report describes Dangote’s established cement operation in Tanzania alongside investment discussions.

Why it matters

Existing production and proposed projects are different stages. The visible lead does not verify a new Tanzanian funding commitment.

What to watch

A named financing or construction disclosure would clarify a new commitment. Only the article’s visible lead was verified.

Source: theeastafrican.co.ke · Edition 3 Oct 2026 · Data as reported · interpretation: Low confidence
Go deeper →
The Ghost

The model book

The hypothetical Ghost model book stood at +17.89% since inception on 2 October 2026. This Modified Dietz result is separate from the share-index moves.

Ghost relevance: how today’s rates, FX, gold and inflation read against a hypothetical model-book; educational, not advice.

Open the Ghost tracker → The terrain it reads →

Companies of the week

DSE · weekly move & tape weight to 2026-10-02 · covered names
NICOL
▲ +4.43%
The week’s biggest gain among covered names.
did not trade on the session · 2026-10-02
Go deeper →
Afriprise Investment Plc
▼ -4.49%
The week’s steepest fall among covered names.
did not trade on the session · 2026-10-02
Go deeper →
TOL Gases
▼ -4.42%
One of the week’s largest moves among covered names.
did not trade on the session · 2026-10-02
Go deeper →

How these were chosen: not hand-picked; the name that carried the tape, the week’s biggest gain and steepest fall, then the heaviest remaining names. Educational context only; not a recommendation, and never a price target.

Week ahead; what to watch
WhenEventWhy it matters
Next official session; date not yet publishedNext verified DSE closeTests whether domestic and all-share prices continue to differ. It cannot identify investor motives.
No date stated in the current auction recordNext Treasury bill resultAllows a like-for-like comparison with the 23 September auction.
No date verifiedNamed Tanzanian industrial commitmentA signed financing or construction disclosure would distinguish discussions from committed capital.
Get the Weekly Brief every weekend.

A sourced review of the full Tanzania market week: the DSE tape and who actually carried it, rates, FX, policy, macro, companies; and what to watch next. Prefer the weekend digest to a daily note? Choose weekly only.

Choose Daily, Weekly, or both; they are separate subscriptions. Information and education only. No advice. No noise. Unsubscribe anytime.

Information and education, not advice or a solicitation. DSE close: 2 October 2026. Weekly index endpoints: 25 September and 2 October. BoT bill auction: 23 September. Weekly currency comparison: 25 September and 2 October; strip: provisional 3 October sheet. Press report: 3 October; only its visible lead was verified. Full-week equity turnover is not established here. Index changes do not establish investor motives. Live updates: Markets.

Archive; past editions59
Share-price measures fell; trading stayed concentratedWednesday, 14 October 2026Indices rose, with trading concentrated in two banksTuesday, 13 October 2026Share prices rose, but the gains were unevenMonday, 12 October 2026Friday’s rise left share prices lower for the weekSaturday, 10 October 2026Share-price measures fell on a quieter trading dayFriday, 9 October 2026Share-price measures fell as more money changed handsThursday, 8 October 2026Share-price measures rose as less money changed handsWednesday, 7 October 2026Share-price measures fell while trading value barely changedTuesday, 6 October 2026More money traded in shares as both price indices fellMonday, 5 October 2026Share trading slowed as both price indices fellFriday, 2 October 2026Share trading rose as both price indices edged higherThursday, 1 October 2026More money traded in shares while both indices fellWednesday, 30 September 2026Both share indices fell as trading value roseTuesday, 29 September 2026Share prices rose, but two banks carried most trading valueMonday, 28 September 2026Can the share-price rise hold across more of the market?Sunday, 27 September 2026Domestic shares rose faster than the wider marketSaturday, 26 September 2026Share indices rose, while two banks carried most trading valueFriday, 25 September 2026Share-price measures fell; two banks carried most trading moneyThursday, 24 September 2026Shares rose, but one bank carried most trading valueWednesday, 23 September 2026Share prices rose, and more traded companies advanced than declinedTuesday, 22 September 2026Share indices fell, with most trading in two banksMonday, 21 September 2026Wednesday tests borrowing costs after a weaker share-trading weekSunday, 20 September 2026Shares fell as less money changed handsSaturday, 19 September 2026Share indices fell as NMB dominated tradingFriday, 18 September 2026Both indices fell as trading stayed narrowThursday, 17 September 2026Indices split, trading stayed concentratedWednesday, 16 September 2026Indices rose, trading stayed narrowTuesday, 15 September 2026Friday gains, concentrated tradingMonday, 14 September 2026Will trading value catch up with rising indices?Sunday, 13 September 2026Share indices rose as less money changed handsSaturday, 12 September 2026Both main indices rose as two banks carried most tradingFriday, 11 September 2026Both main indices rose as equity turnover fell by halfThursday, 10 September 2026The broad index fell while domestic shares edged higherWednesday, 9 September 2026Both main indices rose again, while two banks carried most trading valueTuesday, 8 September 2026Both main indices rose, but two banks still carried most trading valueMonday, 7 September 2026Index direction, trading breadth and Wednesday's bill auction set the next testsSunday, 6 September 2026The broad market rose while Tanzania-listed shares ended lowerSaturday, 5 September 2026CRDB supplied more than three quarters of Thursday's equity turnoverFriday, 4 September 2026Wednesday's DSE close combined a higher DSEI with a lower TSIThursday, 3 September 2026Tuesday's indices weakened while NMB carried most trading valueWednesday, 2 September 2026Monday eased while one bank carried most trading valueTuesday, 1 September 2026Friday rose, but one bank still carried most trading valueMonday, 31 August 2026Comparability, liquidity breadth and Wednesday's bond auction set the next evidence testsSunday, 30 August 2026Index returns stayed unavailable as Friday liquidity remained concentratedSaturday, 29 August 2026DSE index returns went unavailable as NMB carried 89.8% of turnoverFriday, 28 August 2026Mobile access widened as the verified tape strengthened and bill yields fellThursday, 27 August 2026Swissport’s cash conversion strengthened while DSE index returns remained unavailableWednesday, 26 August 2026The DSE scale changed while the underlying equity tape remained activeTuesday, 25 August 2026The DSE indices eased as CRDB carried most verified turnoverMonday, 24 August 2026A split index tape, lighter Friday liquidity and stable FX set up the next evidence testsSunday, 23 August 2026The All-Share rose, the domestic tape slipped and liquidity thinned into FridaySaturday, 22 August 2026DSEI edged up as CRDB led the verified turnover poolFriday, 21 August 2026DSEI rose as NMB carried 59.2% of turnoverThursday, 20 August 2026Friday's wider advance still depended on three counters for 84.7% of turnoverMonday, 17 August 2026NMB mechanics and a long-bond auction turn last week's gains into tests of market depthSunday, 16 August 2026Both indices rose, but five-session turnover still depended on a few namesSaturday, 15 August 2026Both headline indices accelerated; NMB still carried 66.1% of turnoverFriday, 14 August 2026Both headline indices advanced; NMB still carried 72.5% of turnoverThursday, 13 August 2026Both headline indices fell; two banks still carried 87.6% of turnoverWednesday, 12 August 2026