Every allocation, adjustment, hold and deliberate non-decision; the whole reasoning behind each, kept in public so the book never contradicts itself.
Hypothetical model book, marked to the latest verified sources. See the full book →
Both indices rose, 13 of 28 counters were up and TSh 30.05bn traded; yet the leading counter still took 49% to 76% of every session. Inside the book the pattern inverted: four of five equity holdings contributed, the largest just 49% of the move against 92% a week earlier. Bill auction 1204 printed the belly 40bp higher and the one-year 28bp lower. Held a seventh week.
Five sessions traded TSh 25.77bn and NMB plus CRDB supplied 85.4% of it. The model book added about TSh 1.8m and roughly 92% of that came from one holding. Two weeks running, the concentration is the story; in the market and in the book. Held a sixth week.
Fourteen of nineteen priced counters fell, yet the model book posted its strongest week since inception; with roughly 85% of the gain from one holding. A good number out of a narrow market is a reason to examine concentration, not to add to it. Held a fifth week.
TSh 7m of new savings: 4m out the bond curve because the bill ladder stopped paying a real yield, 1.5m to the gold hedge, 1.5m held back as dry powder; and nothing at all to equities, the sleeve furthest above its band middle.
| Ch | Date | Type | Terrain | Amount / weight | Funded from | Rationale | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 15 Aug 2026 | Weekly · hold | Equities (breadth) + fixed income (curve) | Unavailable | Unavailable | Breadth improved and four of five equity holdings paid, but the front end printed a narrower reward for duration; hold, and don't mistake a better week for a solved problem | Published · Read |
| 12 | 8 Aug 2026 | Weekly · hold | Equities (breadth) + fixed income | Unavailable | Unavailable | Two banks supplied 85.4% of the week's turnover and one holding 92% of the book's; study the concentration, and let the duration idea wait | Published · Read |
| 11 | 4 Aug 2026 | Weekly · hold | Equities (concentration) | Unavailable | Unavailable | Best week since inception, ~85% of it from one holding; examine the concentration, do not feed it | Published · Read |
| 10 | 1 Aug 2026 | Monthly · add | T-bonds + gold + cash | TSh 4m / 1.5m / 1.5m | New savings | The bill ladder stopped paying a real yield; equities got nothing, by choice | Published · Read |
| 09 | 25 Jul 2026 | Weekly · hold | Equities (breadth) | Unavailable | Unavailable | An all-time high on zero-volume marks and negative breadth; hold until the board confirms it | Published · Read |
| 08 | 18 Jul 2026 | Weekly · hold | Equities (banks) | Unavailable | Unavailable | The index clawed back near its record on bank-led, negative-breadth strength; no drift to correct | Published · Read |
| 07 | 11 Jul 2026 | Weekly · hold | Equities (banks) | Unavailable | Unavailable | The record cooled; the book still holds; no drift to correct | Published · Read |
| 06 | 4 Jul 2026 | Weekly · hold | Equities (banks) | Unavailable | Unavailable | Three record closes in a row; do nothing, on purpose | Published · Read |
| 05 | 1 Jul 2026 | Monthly · add | Equities + T-bills | TSh 4m / 3m | New savings | Feed the under-weight sleeves that had room | Published · Read |
| 04 | 20 Jun 2026 · Wk 25 | Weekly · open | Commodities (gold) | ~4% | Cash | Open a small reserve-accumulation hedge | Published · Read |
| 03 | Week 25 | Hold · non-decision | Equities (banks) | Unavailable | Unavailable | Let the bank winners run rather than take the easy profit | Archived · Journey |
| 02 | Week 24 | Research · rules | Commodities | Unavailable | Unavailable | Set the gold rules before opening any position | Archived · Terrain |
| 01 | Week 23 | Park cash · hold | Fixed income | Unavailable | Cash | Patience in T-bills while waiting for a decision worth making | Archived · Journey |
| 00 | Origin | Origin · method | Method | Unavailable | Unavailable | The premise, the mandate, and the rules it lives by | Archived · Read |
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