Every allocation, adjustment, hold and deliberate non-decision; the whole reasoning behind each, kept in public so the book never contradicts itself.
Hypothetical model book, marked to the latest verified sources. See the full book →
The advance-decline count was exactly even across the 28 counters with verified closes on both Fridays, and the All-Share fell 0.74% regardless; an index is weighted and a count is not, and the two banks carrying 83.8% of 8 October’s turnover were both among the fallers. The model book slipped 0.19% to TSh 611.22m, its second consecutive weekly fall and the first back-to-back pair on record, with contributed capital unchanged so all of it is market P&L. Equities lost TSh 1.559m; the ballast’s TSh 0.370m covered 23.7% of that against 6.2% a week ago on the same accrual, which says the hole shrank rather than the ballast worked. Auction 1208 raised the 35-day rung 84 basis points and cut the 364-day by one, and both still pay less than 4.3% inflation. Held; and November’s money was not promised to the short end.
The model book fell 0.90% to TSh 612.41m, the largest weekly fall this ledger records, while the All-Share fell 1.08% on turnover that barely moved and one counter led turnover in all five sessions. The single-name cap published two days earlier could not bind: it binds only on new savings, and the largest allocation fell 4.23% so its weight drifted from 19.26% to 18.61% without a decision. A quiet first week is not proof of a rule. Two bookkeeping disclosures are made in full; October’s TSh 7.0m is not yet entered in the tracker, and entering it moves the money-weighted return by two thousandths of a percentage point. Nothing trimmed, nothing sold.
TSh 7m of new savings, and the two decisions three chapters dated to today. 5m goes further out the government bond curve, where the evidence store’s last prints pay roughly 523 basis points over inflation at five years against 199 at the one-year bill rung, which has now fallen at five consecutive auctions; nothing goes to the bill ladder, and that is the duration answer. 1m opens a job for the collective income fund, because the ballast was 86.9% one issuer. 0.5m each to cash and the gold hedge. Equities got nothing for a third month. The single-name cap is published at 20% of the book, binding on new savings only, never forcing a sale, with price drift reported rather than traded.
Equity turnover fell 48.2% to TZS 27.471bn and the market rose regardless: the domestic index gained 2.49%, the banking index 3.44%, and 12 of 28 counters closed higher against 5 a week ago. The model book marked its highest reading yet, TSh 620.28m on 22 September, gave a little back and closed at TSh 617.96m; contributed capital did not move, so the whole TSh 10.02m rise is market P&L. The top two equity allocations reached 36.5% of the book, more concentrated for a third straight week. Held a twelfth week; the single-name cap keeps its 1 October date.
Seven days after the single-name cap was dated for 1 October, the largest model-book equity allocation fell 5.48% on 66.0% of the market’s turnover and its weight dropped from 20.2% to 19.0% with no decision taken. Vodacom rose 9.91% and cancelled almost all of it, so a week in which 15 of 28 counters fell left the book about TSh 1.0m better off. Commercial Services rose 9.22% while Banks fell 4.32%. Held an eleventh week; the cap keeps its date.
The mirror of last week. All five equity holdings rose, contributed capital did not move, and model market P&L gained about TSh 21.5m, so the entire NAV rise is return. The domestic TSI rose 5.84% against the All-Share’s 2.97% as the same three cross-listed names that split the indices last week reversed. The largest model-book equity allocation passed 20%, and the single-name cap now has a publication date. Held a tenth week.
Five verified sessions restored the weekly comparison, and it split: the All-Share rose 1.78% while the domestic Tanzania Share Index fell 0.98%, because the week's biggest movers were cross-listed. Inside the model book four of five equity holdings rose or held flat, yet market P&L fell about TSh 3.3m because the one that fell 5.16% is the largest allocation. The hypothetical NAV still rose, on September's TSh 7m of savings. Held a ninth week.
TSh 7m of new savings: 4m out the bond curve where the official 28 Aug sovereign points pay a real yield, 1.5m back into the bill ladder at the 364-day rung rather than the 91-day one that still lends below inflation, 1m to cash while the index series carries an unexplained 26 Aug discontinuity, and 0.5m topping up the gold hedge. Equities got nothing for a second month.
The model book could be compared across the week after the NMB subdivision was adjusted, but the DSEI and TSI could not be given an honest weekly return across the temporary official index discontinuity. The allocation stayed unchanged while the book separated measurable holding outcomes from a market benchmark that was not comparable.
NMB’s one-for-ten subdivision changed 5,588 model units into 55,880 and divided the per-unit cost basis by ten. Aggregate cost and proportional ownership were preserved. The corrected 24 August mark is TZS 564.56m and +9.98% money-weighted since inception. Nothing was bought or sold.
Both indices rose, 13 of 28 counters were up and TSh 30.05bn traded; yet the leading counter still took 49% to 76% of every session. Inside the book the pattern inverted: four of five equity holdings contributed, the largest just 49% of the move against 92% a week earlier. Bill auction 1204 printed the belly 40bp higher and the one-year 28bp lower. Held a seventh week.
Five sessions traded TSh 25.77bn and NMB plus CRDB supplied 85.4% of it. The model book added about TSh 1.8m and roughly 92% of that came from one holding. Two weeks running, the concentration is the story; in the market and in the book. Held a sixth week.
Fourteen of nineteen priced counters fell, yet the model book posted its strongest week since inception; with roughly 85% of the gain from one holding. A good number out of a narrow market is a reason to examine concentration, not to add to it. Held a fifth week.
TSh 7m of new savings: 4m out the bond curve because the bill ladder stopped paying a real yield, 1.5m to the gold hedge, 1.5m held back as dry powder; and nothing at all to equities, the sleeve furthest above its band middle.
| Ch | Date | Type | Terrain | Amount / weight | Funded from | Rationale | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 10 Oct 2026 | Weekly · hold | Equities (breadth + concentration) + fixed income (the short end) + the capital ledger | N/A | N/A | Across the 28 counters with a verified close on both Fridays 9 rose, 9 fell and 10 were unchanged, an exactly even board, and the All-Share still fell 0.74% because CRDB and NMB were both among the fallers and carried 83.8% of 8 October’s turnover value; turnover fell 35.4% to TZS 18.019bn with foreign sales above purchases in all five sessions, TZS 3.131bn net. The model book fell 0.19% to TSh 611.22m, a second consecutive weekly fall and the first back-to-back pair this ledger records: equities lost TSh 1.559m and the ballast accrued TSh 0.370m, covering 23.7% of it against 6.2% last week on the identical accrual, so the hole was smaller and the ballast no cleverer. BoT auction 1208 of 7 October raised the 35-day rung 84 basis points to 3.36%, its second-largest single-auction rise since January 2023, and cut the 364-day by one to 6.2839% for a sixth straight fall; both short rungs still pay less than September’s 4.3% inflation, so November’s savings were not promised to the bill ladder. The largest allocation drifted to 18.38% of the book, further below the 20% cap on price alone for a second week, which leaves the cap untested rather than vindicated. October’s TSh 7.0m is still not entered in the tracker, nine days on, and is disclosed again rather than back-dated | Published · Read |
| 22 | 3 Oct 2026 | Weekly · hold | Equities (concentration + breadth) + fixed income (curve) + the capital ledger | N/A | N/A | The model book fell 0.90% to TSh 612.41m, the largest weekly fall this ledger records, while the All-Share fell 1.08% on turnover that barely moved at TZS 27.874bn and one counter led turnover in all five sessions. The single-name cap published on 1 October could not bind in its first week, because it binds only on new savings and none arrive before 1 November; the largest allocation fell 4.23% and its weight drifted from 19.26% to 18.61% on price alone, so the cap stopped nothing and was neither vindicated nor refuted. Two bookkeeping disclosures are published rather than smoothed: October’s TSh 7.0m is not yet entered in the tracker, and Chapter 21 paired a 30 September return with post-deposit capital. Market P&L of TSh 91.41m and a money-weighted +17.89% are identical either side of the entry; a deposit is capital, not a gain | Published · Read |
| 21 | 1 Oct 2026 | Monthly · add + rule | T-bonds + income fund + cash + gold; equity single-name cap | TSh 5m / 1m / 0.5m / 0.5m | New savings | The 364-day bill rung has fallen at five consecutive auctions while the bond curve still pays a real term premium, so 5m goes to bonds and nothing to bills; 1m gives the collective income fund a job because the ballast carried 86.9% one issuer; equities got nothing for a third month. The single-name cap promised in chapters 18 to 20 is published: 20% of the book, binding on new savings only, never forcing a sale, with a drift breach reported weekly rather than traded. A pair cap was considered and declined, with the reason given | Published · Read |
| 20 | 26 Sep 2026 | Weekly · hold | Equities (concentration + breadth) + fixed income (curve) | N/A | N/A | Equity turnover fell 48.2% to TZS 27.471bn and the market rose anyway; the model book marked its highest reading yet, TSh 620.28m on 22 Sep, and closed the week at TSh 617.96m with contributed capital unchanged, so the whole TSh 10.02m rise is market P&L. The top two equity allocations reached 36.52% of the book, up for a third straight week on price alone, and BoT auction 1207 cut the 364-day rung for a fifth consecutive auction. A record on thinning volume is the worst moment to move a dated rule, so the single-name cap and the duration question both go to the 1 October allocation | Published · Read |
| 19 | 19 Sep 2026 | Weekly · hold | Equities (concentration + breadth) | N/A | N/A | The largest allocation fell 5.48% on 66.0% of market turnover with no issuer filing, taking its weight from 20.2% back under 20% without a decision; Vodacom’s 9.91% rise cancelled it and the book ended about TSh 1.0m up on a week with 15 of 28 counters lower. A cap that only binds after the price has done the work is not a cap, so the 1 October date stands | Published · Read |
| 18 | 12 Sep 2026 | Weekly · hold | Equities (concentration) + fixed income (curve) | N/A | N/A | All five equity holdings rose and no savings landed, so the whole of the NAV rise is market P&L; the largest allocation passed 20% of the book, so the single-name cap is dated for the 1 October allocation rather than postponed again | Published · Read |
| 17 | 5 Sep 2026 | Weekly · hold | Equities (concentration) + fixed income (curve) | N/A | N/A | Four of five equity holdings rose or held flat and the book still gave back about TSh 3.3m of market P&L; the NAV rose only because September savings landed, so hold and read the deposit apart from the return | Published · Read |
| 16 | 1 Sep 2026 | Monthly · add | T-bonds + T-bills + cash + gold | TSh 4m / 1.5m / 1m / 0.5m | New savings | The 364-day rung pays a real yield where the 91-day does not, so the bill ladder returns one year out; equities got nothing for a second month | Published · Read |
| 15 | 29 Aug 2026 | Weekly · hold | Equities (comparability) | N/A | N/A | Keep the allocation unchanged, report the split-adjusted holding outcomes and preserve the official DSEI and TSI weekly comparison as unavailable across the temporary discontinuity | Published · Read |
| 14 | 26 Aug 2026 | Event · hold | Equities (NMB basis) | N/A | N/A | Apply the one-for-ten unit and cost-basis adjustment, withdraw the false mechanical loss, and leave the allocation unchanged | Published · Read |
| 13 | 15 Aug 2026 | Weekly · hold | Equities (breadth) + fixed income (curve) | N/A | N/A | Breadth improved and four of five equity holdings paid, but the front end printed a narrower reward for duration; hold, and don't mistake a better week for a solved problem | Published · Read |
| 12 | 8 Aug 2026 | Weekly · hold | Equities (breadth) + fixed income | N/A | N/A | Two banks supplied 85.4% of the week's turnover and one holding 92% of the book's; study the concentration, and let the duration idea wait | Published · Read |
| 11 | 4 Aug 2026 | Weekly · hold | Equities (concentration) | N/A | N/A | Best week since inception, ~85% of it from one holding; examine the concentration, do not feed it | Published · Read |
| 10 | 1 Aug 2026 | Monthly · add | T-bonds + gold + cash | TSh 4m / 1.5m / 1.5m | New savings | The bill ladder stopped paying a real yield; equities got nothing, by choice | Published · Read |
| 09 | 25 Jul 2026 | Weekly · hold | Equities (breadth) | N/A | N/A | An all-time high on zero-volume marks and negative breadth; hold until the board confirms it | Published · Read |
| 08 | 18 Jul 2026 | Weekly · hold | Equities (banks) | N/A | N/A | The index clawed back near its record on bank-led, negative-breadth strength; no drift to correct | Published · Read |
| 07 | 11 Jul 2026 | Weekly · hold | Equities (banks) | N/A | N/A | The record cooled; the book still holds; no drift to correct | Published · Read |
| 06 | 4 Jul 2026 | Weekly · hold | Equities (banks) | N/A | N/A | Three record closes in a row; do nothing, on purpose | Published · Read |
| 05 | 1 Jul 2026 | Monthly · add | Equities + T-bills | TSh 4m / 3m | New savings | Feed the under-weight sleeves that had room | Published · Read |
| 04 | 20 Jun 2026 · Wk 25 | Weekly · open | Commodities (gold) | ~4% | Cash | Open a small reserve-accumulation hedge | Published · Read |
| 03 | Week 25 | Hold · non-decision | Equities (banks) | N/A | N/A | Let the bank winners run rather than take the easy profit | Archived · Journey |
| 02 | Week 24 | Research · rules | Commodities | N/A | N/A | Set the gold rules before opening any position | Archived · Terrain |
| 01 | Week 23 | Park cash · hold | Fixed income | N/A | Cash | Patience in T-bills while waiting for a decision worth making | Archived · Journey |
| 00 | Origin | Origin · method | Method | N/A | N/A | The premise, the mandate, and the rules it lives by | Archived · Read |
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