What the week actually said
The DSEI closed Friday at 4,111.98 (DSE, 17 Jul), up about 0.72% on the week and back within 0.12% of the 3 July record of 4,116.73. But the recovery outran its own breadth: over the five sessions 8 counters rose against 11 that fell, so the large banks carried an index the wider board did not. NMB printed a fresh 52-week high at TSh 16,750 while CRDB held at TSh 2,700; both marks reconciled to the verified DSE snapshot. The hypothetical book ended the week at TSh 528.6m, up 4.31% money-weighted since inception on 6 June. Deposits are counted as capital, never as performance.
Still nothing to correct
Equities 51.9% (band 30 to 60), fixed income 33.9% (25 to 50), cash 10.4% (5 to 20), gold 3.8% (0 to 8). Every sleeve sits mid-band, exactly where the month opened. A rotation needs a reason; drift is the usual one, and a bank-led recovery does not create it.
Auction 1203 answered; the wrong way
The print flagged last week arrived: auction No. 1203 (15 Jul, BoT) set the 91-day WAR at 3.35% (−10bp) and the 364-day at 7.03% (−9bp), pushing the front end to roughly 290bp below the 6.25% policy rate rather than toward it. The duration idea still waits on evidence it hasn't got.
A recovery the banks carried
The +0.72% index week was two-thirds a large-cap story: 8 names up, 11 down. The book's biggest equity allocation is a bank, so it rode the move; but a one-sided tape is a reason to watch concentration, not to chase it by adding.
Why hold; a third week, on purpose
Three holds running can look like inertia. It isn't. The test each week is the same: has anything changed what the book should own? This week the honest answer is again no. Every sleeve is inside its mandate band with room to spare, so there is no drift to rebalance. A recovery led by the banks flatters a bank-weighted book; but being flattered by the tape is not a signal to press the bet; if anything it is a reminder to watch how much of the return leans on two names. And the one genuine idea on the table; extending duration while the 364-day sits above 7%; got weaker, not stronger: the 15 July auction eased the whole front end further from policy. Nothing was bought, nothing was sold.
Two reads, one still pending
June CPI came in at 4.0% (NBS), easing from May's 4.2% and holding inside the 3 to 5% target range, with transport; not food; now carrying the pressure. That removes one uncertainty: disinflation is intact, so the thin 3.35% short-end yield is real, not an illusion of falling prices. The read still pending is the next auction (~29 July): whether the front end reconnects to the 6.25% policy rate or stays pinned below it. If the long end holds above 7% while the short end climbs back toward policy, extending the book's duration becomes a thesis worth writing in full; for a future week, with the reasoning shown. Not this one.
UnavailableThe Ghost. Hypothetical and educational only; a model book, not real money, and never advice.